Foresight Centre at the Riigikogu (Arenguseire Keskus)
Estonia's parliament set up a statutory Foresight Centre within the Chancellery of the Riigikogu under the Foresight Act of 2016. In 2025 the centre published four research-direction reports and 17 short reports, drawing on more than 30 researchers and experts.
4 reports, research-direction reports published by the foresight centre, 2025. 17 reports, short reports (lรผhiraportid) published by the foresight centre, 2025. Chancellery of the Riigikogu (Parliament of Estonia), 2025 activity report (2025. aasta tegevusaruanne), chapter VIII Arenguseire keskus, retrieved 2026-10-01.
The move, and what it needed
The Riigikogu legislated a foresight centre inside its own chancellery and gave it a separate budget line and a duty to report to the Economic Affairs Committee every year. Its five-member council, from which MPs and ministers are barred, is appointed by the Economic Affairs Committee, a business organisation the committee names, the President, the university rectors and the Academy of Sciences (ยง 4(2)-(3)), which puts most of the council outside parliament.
Preconditions
- A parliamentary committee willing to adopt the centre's yearly plan and defend its budget across governments
- A pool of domestic researchers the centre can commission, since it buys most of its studies
- An earlier foresight programme (the Development Fund) whose staff and practice could be moved rather than started from zero
Where else it has been used: Finland's Committee for the Future is the usual comparison. It is a standing committee of MPs, while Estonia's centre is a staffed analytical unit with an outside council. The Estonian form needs less political time but depends more on one budget line.
Limits: The two counts measure output, not influence. Nothing in the source shows that a scenario changed a budget, a law or a programme. The publisher is the Riigikogu Chancellery reporting on a unit it houses and services, so this is self-reporting with no external evaluation. The 34% spontaneous awareness figure in the same chapter comes from a Kantar Emor survey reported in the same chapter. Report counts are not comparable across countries or years: research directions vary in scope, and the 17 short reports run from agriculture competitiveness to private tutoring. The centre advises parliament, not the executive, so it says nothing about whether the government runs foresight inside ministries. It is small: in January 2025 the chair of the Economic Affairs Committee, Jaak Aab, said the committee would do its best to keep the centre's budget intact through spending cuts (Riigikogu press release, https://www.riigikogu.ee/pressiteated/majanduskomisjon-kinnitas-arenguseire-keskuse-2025-aasta-tegevuskava/), which shows continuity is not guaranteed. Continuity is real but rests on a redesign. The 2016 Act dissolved the Estonian Development Fund, which had housed the earlier foresight work, and the record does not show whether capacity was lost in that transfer. The Riigi Teataja page that carries the founding dates renders only with JavaScript.