downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 5241.67articles per million people
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC)
- History
Peru
Strongest usable evidence: Agency, at 57.6. Raise Experimentation first, at 17.3. Coordination needs more evidence: confidence is 0.39.
Raise, lowest first
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Experimentation | 0.53 | 17.3 |
| Building | 0.57 | 32.1 |
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 41.9 |
| Trust | 0.49 | 47.6 |
Measure before managing
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Coordination | 0.39 | 77.9 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.40 | 37.5 |
These lists are the country's capability agenda, computed from the scores. Read the full agenda. It names comparable evidence from other countries and the 18 gaps in the registry.
Why this country is included: Sustained growth with persistent institutional instability and high informality.
Anticipation41.9Confidence0.46usableHow capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
Peru
Read Peru beside up to three other countries, down to the indicator behind every row.
- Usable or good evidence
- Thin evidence, hollow point. The dashes open further as confidence falls.
- The point still sits at the score, because confidence never moves it.
- Click any axis to see every country on that dimension.
A score from 0 to 100 is a position inside the frame that all the benchmark countries set: zero is the weakest on a dimension and 100 is the strongest. A score of 10 puts a country near the floor of that frame and does not mean 10 percent of a capability.
| Coordination | 0.39 | 3 of 5 | 0.81 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Agency | 0.56 | 4 of 5 | 0.75 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Adaptability | 0.46 | 3 of 6 | 1.00 | no trend | 48.0 | -5.1 | |
| Learning | 0.54 | 3 of 4 | 0.78 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Trust | 0.49 | 5 of 7 | 0.83 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 2 of 4 | 0.96 | +19.5(2) | 37.0 | -4.9 | |
| Shared Purpose | 0.40 | 3 of 6 | 0.86 | +8.1(2) | 28.0 | -9.5 | |
| Building | 0.57 | 4 of 6 | 0.90 | -1.1(3) | no data | no estimate | |
| Experimentation | 0.53 | 6 of 9 | 0.88 | +1.3(3) | no data | no estimate |
How to read this page
Each dimension has a score from 0 to 100. It shows where this country sits among all 125 countries in the comparison frame, not a percentage. Confidence sits beside the score. A dashed radar edge and hollow point mean the evidence is thin. The records below show each indicator, its raw value, year and source.
A panel estimate, when present, is a separate judgment about what the indicators miss. It does not change the score or confidence. The panel's provenance is shown beside the estimate.
- direct capability measuredirect capability measure Measures the thing itself.
- capability inputcapability input Measures something that supports the capability.
- downstream outcomedownstream outcome Measures a result that usually follows from the capability.
- perception proxyperception proxy Records what people or experts say, not what they did.
Confidence
- very thin0.00 to 0.25
The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.
- thin0.25 to 0.45
A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.
- usable0.45 to 0.65
Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.
- good0.65 and above
Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.
A row marked no dataset exists is a gap: the benchmark wants data that nobody publishes. A retired row has a source this project chose not to use. Both reduce confidence. The glossary defines each term, and the limits page lists where these numbers are known to be wrong about the world.
Anticipation
How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
+19.5 over 10 years, from 22.4 in 2016 to 41.9 on 2 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 81.981index 0-100
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IQ.SPI.OVRL)
- History
Government foresight capacity
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this.
Long-horizon research commitments
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of new grants
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the share of R&D spending classed as basic research, which is the make-up of a spending stock, the construct D142 retired business R&D share for. OECD MSTI publishes that share for its members only, and UNESCO UIS no longer serves R&D by type of research (construct audit, 2026-10-02). The behaviour behind it is a funder committing to a horizon: a grant awarded for five years or more is a decision to wait for a result. Untried: no memo has triaged a grant register. National funders publish award lists one by one with their own durations, and commercial grant aggregators fail the inspectability rule. Wireable on a grant-level register with award and end dates, on one definition of a competitive public grant, for half the frame or more.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
R&D expenditureWorld Bank (GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS), 2023
0.18 % of GDP, rank 92 of 118. Gross domestic expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: money committed to research is what a country spends, and spending it does not show the country reads the future well (D122).
Researchers in R&DWorld Bank (SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6)
No value for this country. Full-time-equivalent researchers per million people.
A condition, not scored: a standing stock of people who could investigate is what a country has, not a record of what they found (D122). Correlates with income but survives size normalization.
Secure internet serversWorld Bank (IT.NET.SECR.P6), 2024
827 per million people, rank 70 of 125. Servers using encryption in internet transactions, per million people.
A condition, not scored: a diffusion stock of digital adoption that money buys, not an act of anticipation (D122). Spans four orders of magnitude, so its rank is read on the published value and its correlations on the logged one.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 37.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.50
I move down one point on the point panelists B and C share, that El Niño preparation has repeatedly lagged forecasts despite recurrence. INEI and the central bank stay strong technocratic institutions, but CEPLAN lacks traction under constant presidential turnover.
- 37.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.45
A and C credit the central bank and finance ministry with macro foresight a little more than I did, and I accept that and add a point; El Niño preparation still lags forecasts and CEPLAN lacks traction, so I stay below the indicator score.
- 37.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
A strong statistical system and technocratic central bank give macro-level foresight, but six presidents since 2016 starved CEPLAN of follow-through and El Nino preparation stays reactive. I move down one point.
Agency
How able are individuals and organizations to turn an intention into action?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 4.9per 1,000 aged 15-64
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 26days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.DURS.MA.DY)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 8count
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.PROC.MA.NO)
- History
Adults doing digital tasks
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- ITU / UNESCO UIS (SDG 4.4.1, ICT skills by type)
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked whether adults can perform standard digital tasks, which reads a skill level, the kind of stock D122 moved out of the scores with internet users. It now counts the act: a person who did the task. It is not the internet users condition beside it, which counts access. Candidate: ITU ICT skills by type (SDG 4.4.1) through the UNESCO UIS API, probed 2026-10-02. Sent a message with an attached file reaches 33 of the 53 countries then in the frame, 25 at 2018 or later, with no United States, India or China and most of Africa and Central America missing; two other task items reach 31 and 16. The items are self-reported and the task list has changed between rounds. Wireable on one task observed for half the frame or more at 2018 or later.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 7.7mean 1-10
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A173)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Individuals using the internetWorld Bank (IT.NET.USER.ZS), 2024
82 % of population, rank 68 of 125. Share of the population that used the internet in the last three months.
A condition, not scored: access to the basic tool of modern agency is what people have to act with, not a record of them acting (D122). Saturates near 95%, which compresses the top of the range.
Financial account ownershipWorld Bank (FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS), 2024
59.3 % aged 15+, rank 82 of 122. Adults with an account at a bank or mobile money provider.
A condition, not scored: holding an account is the precondition for almost any economic action, not the action (D122). Global Findex, published every three years.
Credit to the private sectorWorld Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS), 2024
39.6 % of GDP, rank 66 of 124. Domestic credit provided to the private sector by financial corporations.
A condition, not scored: financial depth is a stock of money available to actors, not what they do with it (D122). High values can also signal a credit bubble, so more is not always better.
Coordination
How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Government effectiveness
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_GE.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The WGI aggregate the opinions of experts and firms, and in this set the four WGI series correlate with each other between 0.93 and 0.98 while correlating with log GDP per capita at 0.91. That is one perception of national wealth counted in three dimensions. Cross-agency delivery records are the replacement and they are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Regulatory quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RQ.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. Same measurement as government effectiveness, filed under a different name, correlating with it above 0.93. See D23 and A4.
Logistics performance
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The LPI is a survey of international freight forwarders, so it records how a country looks to global logistics firms. A small country with a small port scores low whatever its state can organise, which is artefact A9. Container throughput and border time are observable and stay. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 48hours
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TRD.ACRS.BRDR.EXPT.BRDR.COMP.HR.DB1619)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 91.581percentage points from approved budget
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (GF.XPD.BUDG.ZS)
- History
University-industry collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Innovation Index
- History
- no data
Note: GII carries it, but the underlying item is a WEF executive opinion survey whose microdata is not inspectable. Excluded on principle 4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.706index 0-1
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2x_cspart)
- History
- one year
Public-private collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable dataset. PPP investment databases measure infrastructure finance, not collaboration capacity.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Customs clearance time for exportsWorld Bank (IC.CUS.DURS.EX), 2023
5.399 days, lower is better. Average number of days to clear direct exports through customs, as reported by manufacturing firms that export directly, in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys.
Days a manufacturer that exports directly says its goods took to clear customs, from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. It is the time the border took on firms' own shipments, current where the Doing Business border time this capability scores is frozen at 2019. It is not scored for two reasons. The number of firms behind each country's figure is published only in the survey microdata, and on a proxy from the published tables 37 of the 53 countries in the frame when it was checked clear 30 exporting firms; Mexico, the Philippines, Israel and nine others may not. And the question changed: surveys fielded from 2024 also ask how long release took across all border agencies, and drop an answer where customs alone took longer, so a country surveyed on both sides of the change can move severalfold with nothing at its border changing. India reads 17.3 days in 2022 and 2.5 in 2025, on more than 9,000 firms each time. No country in the frame has two surveys on the new questionnaire yet. Income is not why it is left out: it barely tracks log GDP per capita.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Obras por Impuestos, firms financing public infrastructure
Peru's Obras por Impuestos scheme lets private firms finance public projects against future tax liabilities; the finance ministry recorded S/5.504 billion in certificates issued from 2009 through January 2024 and six projects identified as physically and financially complete in 2024.
5,504,000,000 Peruvian soles, certificates issued through obras por impuestos, 2024-01. 6 projects, projects identified as complete in 2024, 2024. Ministry of Economy and Finance, Obras por Impuestos detailed report, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Peru let companies propose and finance public works and recover the cost through tax certificates, creating a bridge between private capital and local public priorities while the state retained project approval and service ownership.
Limits: Certificates and completion counts show the scale of a tax-linked financing mechanism, not whether projects were additional, delivered on time, well maintained or distributed fairly. The ministry compiles project information from public systems and companies; the scheme shifts financing and execution roles but does not remove public responsibility for selecting, regulating and operating the asset.
Trust
How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Rule of law
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RL.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite correlating with control of corruption above 0.95 and with log GDP per capita at 0.83. Court throughput and case clearance rates are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Control of corruption
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_CC.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite. It measures reputation for corruption, which is not the same thing as corruption, and it tracks income closely. Prosecution and audit records are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 478days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (ENF.CONT.DURS.DY)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 7.597% of firms
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 2.63scale 0-4 (never to always)
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp)
- History
- one year
Intentional homicide rate
downstream outcomeretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataper 100,000 people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (VC.IHR.PSRC.P5)
- History
- no data
Note: Added 2026-08-26 by D23 as the observable replacement for two retired WGI perception composites, and retired 2026-08-27 by D44 when the diagnostic built in D42 measured what it was doing. It raised this dimension's correlation with log GDP per capita by 0.288, from 0.096 to 0.385, the largest single wealth contribution anywhere in the model. It was added to fix wealth contamination and it was the wealth contamination. The dataset is sound and the objection is to what it measures here: homicide is driven heavily by organised crime, a society can be physically safe while trusting very little, and across this country set the variation it carries is mostly income. Behavioural trust measures remain a gap.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 4.2% agreeing
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A165)
- History
- one year
Trust in public institutions
perception proxyno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% expressing confidence
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD Trust Survey / WVS
- History
- no data
Note: The OECD survey covers members only. Mixing it with WVS items for India and South Africa would break comparability. The Joint EVS/WVS confidence battery (E069) reaches 37 countries from one release, and confidence in the courts (E069_17) is published beside Trust as a check under this id rather than scored: every item of the battery tested (courts, civil service, police, parliament and government) reads higher in the closed and electoral autocracies of the frame than in its democracies, which is deference as much as confidence (A13). The gap stays open for a measure that does not reward a court that cannot rule against the state. See D132.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 9% expressing trust
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (G007_34_B)
- History
- one year
Court case clearance rate
downstream outcomeno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of incoming cases
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- CEPEJ / OECD / national court statistics
- History
- no data
Note: Whether a court finishes what it starts, counted from case records rather than asked in a survey. D23 named it as the observable replacement for the two retired WGI composites and it has stayed unfilled since. CEPEJ publishes it for Council of Europe members and OECD for its own members, so no single publisher reaches this country set, and a harmonised series needs the project second source adapter. See D57.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Confidence in the courtsJoint EVS/WVS (E069_17), 2022
1.8 % a great deal, higher is better. Share of survey respondents saying they have a great deal of confidence in the justice system and courts, of the four answers a great deal, quite a lot, not very much and none at all, in the Joint EVS/WVS 2017 to 2022 survey round.
Confidence in the courts is the public half of what this capability asks: whether people expect the rules to be enforced when a stranger breaks them. It is not scored because the survey answer reads two things the number cannot tell apart. Where courts are independent, confidence is a judgment of how they perform. Where they answer to the state, it is also deference, and saying otherwise to an interviewer has a cost. In this frame the pattern runs the wrong way. India, the Philippines and Indonesia, all electoral autocracies in the V-Dem 2025 classification, lead on the share saying a great deal, and Vietnam and China, the two closed autocracies surveyed, lead once quite a lot is counted too. The ten electoral autocracies average 21.8 percent saying a great deal and the two closed autocracies 28.1, against 13.6 for liberal and 8.4 for electoral democracies. Scored, it would rank highest the states whose courts are least able to rule against them. Income is not why it is left out: the share correlates about -0.18 with log GDP per capita. The value is the share saying a great deal; the share saying quite a lot is in the source note.
Learning
How effectively does the country acquire, distribute, and update knowledge?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.605index 0-1
- Year
- 2020. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (HD.HCI.OVRL)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 61.42% of firms
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.TRNG.ZS)
- History
Adult learning participation
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Eurostat / OECD PIAAC
- History
- no data
Note: The best available measure of continuous learning capacity, and it exists only for European and OECD members.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0.639ratio to world average
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Tertiary enrolmentWorld Bank (SE.TER.ENRR), 2017
71.2 % gross, rank 39 of 124. Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education.
A condition, not scored: enrolment counts people in formal education and records nothing learned (D122).
Public education expenditureWorld Bank (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS), 2024
4.4 % of GDP, rank 54 of 125. Government expenditure on education as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: public spending on education is a pure input, and learning is what the dimension asks about (D122).
Vocational share of secondaryWorld Bank (SE.SEC.ENRL.VO.ZS), 2019
2.1 % of secondary, rank 107 of 125. Vocational pupils as a share of total secondary enrolment.
A condition, not scored: the share of secondary pupils on a vocational track describes how a school system is built, not what anyone learns in it, and higher is not unambiguously better (D141). It marks a route into skilled work that does not run through university. Learning reads research citation impact, firm training and the human capital index instead.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Educación Básica Alternativa (EBA), and its erosion
Peru's Educación Básica Alternativa, the second-chance basic education modality for youths and adults, enrolled 226,500 students in 2016, the highest year of the 2014 to 2023 table, and 190,700 in 2023, according to INEI's Compendio Estadístico 2024 citing the Ministry of Education's school census.
190.7 thousand students, enrolment in educación básica alternativa, 2023. 226.5 thousand students, enrolment in educación básica alternativa at the 2016 peak of the 2014 to 2023 series, 2016. Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (INEI), Perú: Compendio Estadístico 2024, Tomo 1, Table 5.6 (source: Ministerio de Educación, Censo Escolar, Unidad de Estadística Educativa), retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: The 2003 General Education Law converted Peru's old adult schools into a separate modality of basic education, delivered by public and private CEBA centres with flexible schedules and counted in the national school census. Enrolment peaked in 2016 and has drifted down since.
Limits: The numbers are in a PDF table (Table 5.6, PDF page 323 of 1,046), published in thousands with one decimal, and INEI republishes the Ministry of Education's census rather than collecting it; the Ministry's own ESCALE portal sits behind a bot-verification wall and could not be read. The peak is only the highest year of the ten-year window the table shows (2014 to 2023), and it was a one-year jump: enrolment was 204,500 in 2014 and 203,900 in 2015, so against 2014 the 2023 count is only about 7 percent lower, and the fall of about 16 percent is measured from that jump. The series reached its low of 188,600 in 2022 and rose slightly in 2023. The modality serves adolescents from 14 as well as adults, so not every learner is an adult, and the table does not split public from private centres. Enrolment is a census-day count, not attendance or completion, and a smaller EBA can partly reflect more young people completing regular schooling. A table footnote says the conversion of former adult education centres into the modality has been under way since 2006, so early years mix old and new structures. The 2003 start is the Ley General de Educación 28044 that created the modality, which is not stated at the source URL.
Experimentation
How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved?
+1.3 over 10 years, from 4.3 in 2016 to 5.6 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 94per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 29557per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 97per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 389275per million people
- Year
- 2026. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- GitHub Innovation Graph (data/repositories.csv)
- History
- no data
Venture deals
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD / national VC associations
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The id keeps its first name so evidence records, links and published files still resolve. The row asked for venture capital deployed as a share of GDP, a level of financial depth of the kind private credit is (D122). A count of first rounds counts attempts started with outside risk money, which is what this capability asks about, and a large round counts once. Candidates, none wireable: the OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Financing scoreboard carried venture capital for 6 of the 16 countries the frame held on 2026-08-26, as amounts in national currency, latest year 2022, with Brazil, India, South Africa and Singapore absent (D21); national venture capital associations publish counts on their own definitions; commercial deal databases cover the world and are not inspectable (D10). Wireable on an inspectable deal count with one definition of a first round for half the frame or more. Read A1 before treating this dimension as measured.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 12.8% aged 18-64
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, TEA rate)
- History
- one year
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 55.1% not deterred
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, fear of failure rate)
- History
- one year
Firms through regulatory sandboxes
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no datafirms per million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national regulators
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the number and breadth of live sandboxes, which is a policy stock: a regime can exist with nobody in it. It now counts what passes through: firms a regulator let test under relaxed rules, and firms that came out, authorised, withdrawn or failed. Regulators publish cohort lists and exit reports one by one. The evidence corpus holds 22 records against this row, most of them counts of firms admitted or exited, each on the definition and window of its own regulator, and no register assembles them on one definition (O1 triage sweep, 2026-10-01). A realistic candidate for Envisioning to build from those lists. Wireable on a register that counts admissions and completions on one definition for half the frame or more.
University spinouts
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national TTO associations
- History
- no data
Note: Reported nationally with incompatible definitions of what counts as a spinout.
Business share of R&D
capability inputretired, see notes- Raw value
- no data% of R&D
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD MSTI / RICYT
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-10-02. The only working source, OECD MSTI joined with RICYT for Latin America, covers 34 of the 53 countries then in the frame, but the row reads the make-up of a spending stock: who performs the R&D a country pays for. R&D spending itself is a condition since D122, and the share is high both where business research is large (Israel) and where total research is tiny and one firm dominates it (Thailand). State enterprises count as business, so China and Vietnam read their ownership model. UIS stopped publishing the series in 2023. Firms trying new things are read through patents, trademarks, designs and entrepreneurship instead. See D142.
Adaptability
How effectively can the system respond when circumstances change?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 5.117% of labour force
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS)
- History
Long-term unemployment share
downstream outcomemissing- Raw value
- no data% of unemployed
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- ILOSTAT (DF_UNE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_DUR_NB)
- History
- no data
Note: Derived from ILOSTAT unemployment by duration: 12 months or more over the unemployed whose duration is stated, both sexes, age 15 and over, a labour force survey preferred where ILOSTAT holds more than one. Read it beside the unemployment rate, because a high share means two different things: slow reallocation, where people who lose work stay out of it (South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria), or a small residual pool in a tight market, where the few left unemployed are the hardest to place (Switzerland, Japan). Some national questionnaires cannot record a long search, so the adapter runs a plausibility gate on every country: it drops a year under 3%, every year of a survey whose median is under 3%, a one- or two-year spike of more than 15 points that the series returns from, and a latest year that jumps more than 15 points with no later year to confirm it, then emits the latest year that survives. Every dropped value is logged in the source memo. See D120.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.306index 0-1, lower = more diversified
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices)
- History
- one year
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 1.24% of products not exported competitively at the start
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ))
- History
- one year
Disaster preparedness and recovery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- INFORM / UNDRR
- History
- no data
Note: No source observes a country preparing for or recovering from a real shock. INFORM publishes its lack of coping capacity apart from hazard and exposure, but that dimension averages government self-assessments and governance perception indices with stocks such as roads, phones and physicians, which is the perception layer D23 retired plus conditions money buys (D122). Sendai and WHO reporting are governments grading themselves. A warning-reach survey item is a check candidate. See the disaster preparedness memo.
Institutional responsiveness
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No dataset exists. Measurable in principle from legislative and regulatory timestamps, which no one has assembled comparably.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Labour force participationWorld Bank (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), 2025
77 % aged 15+, rank 31 of 125. Share of the working-age population in the labour force.
A condition, not scored: how much of the population is in the labor force at all is what a country has to reallocate, a level set by norms, schooling and age, not a record of it reallocating (D141). Participation norms confound it, especially for India. Adaptability reads reallocation through long-term unemployment and export diversification instead.
Fixed broadband subscriptionsWorld Bank (IT.NET.BBND.P2), 2024
11.7 per 100 people, rank 77 of 125. Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people.
A condition, not scored: installed infrastructure is what a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D122). Penalizes mobile-first countries such as India and South Africa.
Electricity transmission lossesWorld Bank (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), 2023
11.3 % of output, rank 78 of 117. Power lost in transmission and distribution, including unbilled use.
A condition, not scored: the state of the grid, and whether its operator can bill what it delivers, is infrastructure a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D141). Read it beside broadband, the other installed network beside Adaptability.
Informal employmentILOSTAT (DF_SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT), 2025
70.5 % of employment, rank 66 of 102. Informal employment as a share of total employment, SDG indicator 8.3.1.
A condition, not scored: how much work carries no contract, registration or social protection describes the labor market a country reallocates through, not it reallocating (D150). Read it beside the unemployment rate: where most work is informal, a person who loses a job takes any work within weeks, so a low rate is not a fluid market. Its direction for Adaptability cannot be defended, since informal work is both the slack that absorbs a shock and the precarity that keeps a worker from moving up, so the rank orders values and is not a verdict. Comparability is weak: the European values come from an income survey (EU-SILC) with a proxy definition, and the rest from labor force or household surveys processed by the ILO. ILOSTAT has no value for the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, China, the Philippines or Cuba, and some values are old (Haiti and Nicaragua 2012).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Juntos, a conditional-transfer system at national scale
Peru's Juntos conditional cash-transfer programme, created in 2005 and placed under MIDIS in 2012, operated in 1,885 districts and benefited 793,623 households by August 2024 through SISFOH-targeted support.
793,623 households, households benefiting from juntos, 2024-08. 1,885 districts, districts where juntos operates, 2024-08. Ministry of Development and Social Inclusion (MIDIS), monitoring-tools presentation, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Peru linked regular cash transfers to health and education conditions and used the intergovernmental SISFOH targeting system to identify poor households, giving a national programme a way to reach dispersed communities while retaining a welfare-policy feedback and evaluation function.
Limits: Household coverage shows administrative reach, not whether transfers arrive on time, improve health or schooling, reduce poverty durably or exclude eligible families. MIDIS reports the programme totals and the targeting system, while causal effects require evaluations rather than beneficiary counts. District presence can also mask uneven access across a mountainous and remote country.
National COVID-19 vaccination campaign
From its first dose on 9 February 2021 to the end of 2023, Peru's national COVID-19 vaccination campaign administered 91.3 million doses and completed the primary series for 28.7 million people, 87 per 100 population, with 22.2 million boosted.
28,709,882 persons, persons with a completed primary series, 2023-12-29. 87 per 100 population, persons with a completed primary series per 100 population, 2023-12-29. World Health Organization, COVID-19 vaccination data (country-reported), retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: The Ministry of Health ran a national campaign through its own clinics plus mass sites and age-tiered scheduling, and tied access to indoor public spaces to a vaccination card from December 2021 to push the late adopters.
Limits: WHO publishes what Peru's Ministry of Health reports, so the count is the country's administrative record, not a serosurvey; the CSV is machine-readable and the Peru row carries DATE_UPDATED 2023-12-29. Doses and persons are cumulative and do not show timeliness: vaccination came after Peru had already recorded one of the world's highest COVID-19 death rates, so the campaign evidences recovery capacity, not preparedness that prevented the first waves. Coverage was uneven: the ministry's own 11 December 2021 release, when 70 percent of the target population had two doses, named Madre de Dios, Puno and Ucayali below 50 percent. In January 2023 the ministry reported 1,964,490 doses close to expiry in its central warehouse. Per-100 figures use WHO's population denominator, not the national target population.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 47.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
I move up two points on panelist B's agro-export point: the coastal boom rested on state-built irrigation projects such as Chavimochic and Olmos and a dedicated agrarian regime, which are institutions enabling reallocation. Seventy percent informality and the very high COVID-19 mortality still show weak responsive capacity beyond the macro institutions.
- 52.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
A's point on Peru's very high COVID mortality despite early lockdowns shows weak state response, so I trim two points; I stay above A and C because the informal economy's fast re-entry into work and the desert agro-export boom are genuine reallocation, not only shock absorption.
- 48.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
Low unemployment reflects roughly 70 percent informality that absorbs shocks without productive reallocation, and COVID mortality showed weak response. Macro institutions adapted well and informal agility is real, so I hold at 48 between the panelists.
Building
How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems?
-1.1 over 10 years, from 17.6 in 2016 to 16.5 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 12.241% of GDP
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 5.214% of manufactured exports
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS)
- History
Logistics infrastructure quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.INFR.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. An LPI sub-index, so the same freight-forwarder survey as logistics performance and the same problem. Electricity connection speed stays as the observable infrastructure measure in this dimension. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 78.696score 0-100
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.ELC.TIME.DFRN)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0.272index
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (EF.EFM.UNIV.XD)
- History
Large project delivery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 4 records- Raw value
- no data% overrun
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: The single best measure of execution capability and there is no comparable international dataset. Assembling one is a defensible Envisioning project. Building mixes industrial output with state delivery capacity, and this indicator carries the delivery side: the other six indicators cannot see a national programme that was delivered. Documented deliveries are recorded in data/evidence and never scored, see D20.
Firm scale-up rate
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of firms
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD DynEmp
- History
- no data
Note: OECD business dynamics work covers members irregularly. Nothing comparable for India, Brazil or South Africa.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Output per workerWorld Bank (SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD), 2025
30,451 constant 2021 PPP $, rank 79 of 123. GDP per person employed, constant purchasing power parity.
A condition, not scored: output per worker is income per worker, the wealth the benchmark tests capability against, so it is published beside Building as context (D122).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Invierte.pe, a national multi-year investment-management system
Peru's Invierte.pe system tracks public investment across national, regional and local governments; by 25 July 2024 the three levels had executed S/25.939 billion of a S/67.797 billion investment budget, a reported 38.3% advance.
25,939,000,000 Peruvian soles, public investment executed by 25 july, 2024-07-25. 67,797,000,000 Peruvian soles, 2024 public investment budget, 2024-07-25. Ministry of Economy and Finance, Invierte.pe daily investment-execution report, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Peru replaced a project-by-project approval model with a multi-year investment cycle that registers, prioritises and follows projects across government levels, giving the finance ministry a common pipeline and a basis for tracking execution rather than seeing only annual spending requests.
Limits: Budget execution is an administrative flow, not evidence that projects were selected well, completed on schedule, delivered value or reached underserved regions. The daily report aggregates three government levels and counts expenditure against a budget that can change during the year. A planning-and-monitoring system can make bottlenecks visible without guaranteeing that agencies resolve them.
Reconstrucción con Cambios, a delayed recovery portfolio
A 2023 Contraloría control report found the education portfolio of Peru's Reconstrucción con Cambios programme at 36.6% implementation by July 2023 against a 78% milestone expected in the earlier baseline, with the corresponding target date already expired.
36.6 % implemented, education-portfolio implementation in july 2023, 2023-07. 78 % expected, earlier baseline milestone for education portfolio, 2021-12. Contraloría General de la República del Perú, concurrent control report on Reconstrucción con Cambios, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Peru created a dedicated reconstruction authority and hired government-to-government technical assistance, then used concurrent audit to expose procurement and schedule risks while projects were still moving. The 36.6% result shows that a new delivery wrapper did not automatically clear local preparation and contracting bottlenecks.
Limits: The comparison is for one education portfolio and one control milestone, not the whole reconstruction programme or every project type. The Contraloría measures implementation against a management baseline; it does not by itself explain land, procurement or design causes, nor the quality and resilience of completed works. The gap shows a delayed delivery path, not that every intervention failed.
Gasoducto Sur Peruano, a terminated pipeline concession
Peru's Gasoducto Sur Peruano concession, signed in July 2014 for a US$7.328 billion gas pipeline due in commercial operation by March 2019, stood at 37.32% overall progress against 76.49% scheduled in December 2016, according to the energy regulator Osinergmin, and the Ministry of Energy and Mines terminated the concession in January 2017 after the consortium failed to reach financial close.
37.32 % complete, actual overall project progress, 2016-12-25. 76.49 % complete, scheduled overall project progress at the same date, 2016-12-25. Osinergmin (energy regulator), Gas Natural supervision division, monthly supervision report on the GSP project, December 2016, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Peru's energy ministry awarded a single private consortium a design-build-finance-operate concession for a strategic southern gas pipeline, backed by a guaranteed-revenue charge on electricity bills, and then terminated it when the consortium could not close financing; the regulator was left administering the half-built assets.
Limits: Both progress figures are the concessionaire's own report as relayed by the regulator (the table cites 'Fuente: Reporte de Concesionario Gasoducto Sur Peruano SA'); Osinergmin supervised but did not independently measure overall progress. The figure is a weighted composite of permits, engineering, logistics and construction, so 37% overstates what was built: construction and assembly stood at 10.37% against 63.78% planned. The record does not show the final cost to the state, the arbitration outcome, the value of stranded assets, or how far the collapse stemmed from the Odebrecht corruption case and lost bank financing rather than from Peruvian institutions' project management. It is a concession (design, finance, build, operate), so the schedule failure is shared between the grantor and a private consortium. The numbers sit inside PDFs, not a statistical API. Later governments have repeatedly proposed reviving the pipeline under new names; this record concerns the 2014 concession, which ended by decision.
Talara refinery modernisation, delivered late and over cost
Petroperú's Talara Refinery Modernisation Project, begun with the May 2014 EPC contract, reached full operation in 2023 after Peru's Contraloría found its estimated investment had risen from US$1.3 billion to more than US$5 billion by October 2020, about 400%, and a cumulative schedule slippage of more than three years in the project's execution schedule, traced to the auxiliary-units contracting.
400 % increase, increase in estimated investment from feasibility estimate (us$1.3bn) to october 2020 (over us$5bn), 2020-10. 3 years (more than), cumulative schedule slippage, auxiliary units and complementary works, 2021-09-09. Contraloría General de la República del Perú, press release on compliance audit N° 15543-2021-CG/MPROY-AC of the PMRT, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Peru legislated a state-owned refiner's modernisation, let the company contract a single EPC builder and then improvise the auxiliary works, and the Contraloría's audit traced repeated procurement reversals to a schedule slip of over three years and a several-fold cost rise before the plant reached full operation.
Limits: The 400% figure is a conditional statement ('estaría significando') attributed to the Comptroller General in a press release, comparing a feasibility-study estimate with an October 2020 cost, not an audited final cost; part of the rise reflects scope changes (Flexicoking, auxiliary units) rather than pure overrun, and the press release does not separate them. The press release's own figures (US$1.3bn to over US$5bn) imply an increase of about 285%, or roughly 3.85 times the estimate, so the stated 400% is the Comptroller's rounding and not the arithmetic; the metric keeps 400 because it is the published figure. The three-year slippage is the audit's figure for the auxiliary-units component over its 2014 to 2018 review window, not a measured end-to-end delay. Petroperú is a state-owned company, not a ministry: the record judges the state as project owner, and Petroperú's subsequent financial distress and government bailouts are not shown here. 'Operating' rests on a ministry press release declaring 100% operability in September 2023, not on independent utilisation data. The evidence is of a delivery that was completed late and far over cost, not a success.