National Planning Commission foresight work for Malawi 2063
Malawi's National Planning Commission, which signed a UNDP initiation plan in November 2020 to create a foresight unit and horizon scanning capability, reported for 2022/23 that it produced a foresight modelling report with modelled scenarios for the Malawi 2063 vision, policy briefs on three of the vision's pillars with UNDP and the finance ministry, and foresight modelling training for planners from ministries and academia.
1 reports, foresight modelling reports produced (assessing malawi's trajectory towards mip-1 milestones and mw2063 aspirations), FY2022/23. National Planning Commission of Malawi, 2023 Annual Report (financial year 2022/2023), section 3.3.3 Enhanced Foresight Initiatives, retrieved 2026-10-02.
The move, and what it needed
The statutory planning commission that owns the national long-term vision built a small foresight and modelling capability with UNDP support and used it to test the vision's targets against scenarios and to train planners in ministries.
Preconditions
- A statutory planning commission with a mandate over a long-term vision
- Donor funding and technical partners to seed the capability
- Ministry planners and academics willing to adopt the methods
Where else it has been used: The commission organised a learning visit on foresight planning to South Africa in the same year, so the method was borrowed from a regional neighbour as well as from UNDP.
Limits: The commission reports on itself, in a PDF (section 3.3, printed pages 38 to 39, PDF page 42). The metric is a single report, and the text does not say how many policy briefs were written, only that they covered the urbanisation, industrialisation and agricultural productivity pillars, so the delivery figure is thin. The foresight work leans on UNDP: the unit was set up under a six-month UNDP initiation plan (NPC news item, 26 November 2020, https://npc.mw/2020/12/npc-undp-sign-agreement-to-initiate-implementation-of-foresight-project/) and the 2022/23 briefs were produced with UNDP, so the record cannot separate national capacity from donor support. The commission is primarily a development planning body that monitors the Malawi 2063 vision and its first ten-year implementation plan, which sits closer to planning than to open-ended scenario foresight; its modelled scenarios are tied to vision targets. No later annual report was read, so status rests on 2022/23, and the report gives no staff count or budget for the foresight function.