downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 196.72articles per million people
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC)
- History
Bolivia
Strongest usable evidence: Adaptability, at 65.4. Raise Anticipation first, at 28.7. Shared Purpose needs more evidence: confidence is 0.28.
Raise, lowest first
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 28.7 |
| Building | 0.57 | 36.1 |
| Agency | 0.54 | 38.7 |
| Trust | 0.50 | 39.7 |
Measure before managing
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Shared Purpose | 0.28 | 46.8 |
| Experimentation | 0.33 | 5.9 |
| Coordination | 0.39 | 76.8 |
| Learning | 0.39 | 36.1 |
These lists are the country's capability agenda, computed from the scores. Read the full agenda. It names comparable evidence from other countries and the 18 gaps in the registry.
Why this country is included: Resource-dependent landlocked state with strong social movements and weak formal institutions.
Anticipation28.7Confidence0.46usableHow capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
Bolivia
Read Bolivia beside up to three other countries, down to the indicator behind every row.
- Usable or good evidence
- Thin evidence, hollow point. The dashes open further as confidence falls.
- The point still sits at the score, because confidence never moves it.
- Click any axis to see every country on that dimension.
A score from 0 to 100 is a position inside the frame that all the benchmark countries set: zero is the weakest on a dimension and 100 is the strongest. A score of 10 puts a country near the floor of that frame and does not mean 10 percent of a capability.
| Coordination | 0.39 | 3 of 5 | 0.81 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Adaptability | 0.62 | 4 of 6 | 1.00 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Shared Purpose | 0.28 | 2 of 6 | 0.92 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Trust | 0.50 | 5 of 7 | 0.85 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Agency | 0.54 | 4 of 5 | 0.73 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Learning | 0.39 | 2 of 4 | 0.88 | no trend | 32.0 | -4.1 | |
| Building | 0.57 | 4 of 6 | 0.90 | +4.5(3) | no data | no estimate | |
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 2 of 4 | 0.96 | +11.1(2) | 21.0 | -7.7 | |
| Experimentation | 0.33 | 4 of 9 | 0.81 | +0.2(3) | 9.0 | +3.1 |
How to read this page
Each dimension has a score from 0 to 100. It shows where this country sits among all 125 countries in the comparison frame, not a percentage. Confidence sits beside the score. A dashed radar edge and hollow point mean the evidence is thin. The records below show each indicator, its raw value, year and source.
A panel estimate, when present, is a separate judgment about what the indicators miss. It does not change the score or confidence. The panel's provenance is shown beside the estimate.
- direct capability measuredirect capability measure Measures the thing itself.
- capability inputcapability input Measures something that supports the capability.
- downstream outcomedownstream outcome Measures a result that usually follows from the capability.
- perception proxyperception proxy Records what people or experts say, not what they did.
Confidence
- very thin0.00 to 0.25
The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.
- thin0.25 to 0.45
A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.
- usable0.45 to 0.65
Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.
- good0.65 and above
Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.
A row marked no dataset exists is a gap: the benchmark wants data that nobody publishes. A retired row has a source this project chose not to use. Both reduce confidence. The glossary defines each term, and the limits page lists where these numbers are known to be wrong about the world.
Anticipation
How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
+11.1 over 10 years, from 17.6 in 2016 to 28.7 on 2 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 70.232index 0-100
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IQ.SPI.OVRL)
- History
Government foresight capacity
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this.
Long-horizon research commitments
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of new grants
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the share of R&D spending classed as basic research, which is the make-up of a spending stock, the construct D142 retired business R&D share for. OECD MSTI publishes that share for its members only, and UNESCO UIS no longer serves R&D by type of research (construct audit, 2026-10-02). The behaviour behind it is a funder committing to a horizon: a grant awarded for five years or more is a decision to wait for a result. Untried: no memo has triaged a grant register. National funders publish award lists one by one with their own durations, and commercial grant aggregators fail the inspectability rule. Wireable on a grant-level register with award and end dates, on one definition of a competitive public grant, for half the frame or more.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
R&D expenditureWorld Bank (GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS), 2021
0.06 % of GDP, rank 107 of 118. Gross domestic expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: money committed to research is what a country spends, and spending it does not show the country reads the future well (D122).
Researchers in R&DWorld Bank (SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6), 2021
63.1 per million people, rank 94 of 114. Full-time-equivalent researchers per million people.
A condition, not scored: a standing stock of people who could investigate is what a country has, not a record of what they found (D122). Correlates with income but survives size normalization.
Secure internet serversWorld Bank (IT.NET.SECR.P6), 2024
364 per million people, rank 83 of 125. Servers using encryption in internet transactions, per million people.
A condition, not scored: a diffusion stock of digital adoption that money buys, not an act of anticipation (D122). Spans four orders of magnitude, so its rank is read on the published value and its correlations on the logged one.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 20.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.55
I hold 20: the panel agrees, and the state spent a visible gas decline without preparing for the dollar and fuel shortages, while the postponed census shows statistics are not insulated from politics.
- 21.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.50
Near hold. A's point about the postponed 2022 census adds to the gas depletion failure; Andean community risk practices are real but local, so I move a point toward A.
- 21.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.45
I come down from 22 to 21. A and B point to the specific failure to save the gas windfall or prepare for depletion, which produced the 2023 to 2024 dollar and fuel shortages, and the postponed census shows weak insulation of statistics. Local Andean risk management is not national preparedness.
Agency
How able are individuals and organizations to turn an intention into action?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.471per 1,000 aged 15-64
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 39.5days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.DURS.MA.DY)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 12count
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.PROC.MA.NO)
- History
Adults doing digital tasks
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- ITU / UNESCO UIS (SDG 4.4.1, ICT skills by type)
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked whether adults can perform standard digital tasks, which reads a skill level, the kind of stock D122 moved out of the scores with internet users. It now counts the act: a person who did the task. It is not the internet users condition beside it, which counts access. Candidate: ITU ICT skills by type (SDG 4.4.1) through the UNESCO UIS API, probed 2026-10-02. Sent a message with an attached file reaches 33 of the 53 countries then in the frame, 25 at 2018 or later, with no United States, India or China and most of Africa and Central America missing; two other task items reach 31 and 16. The items are self-reported and the task list has changed between rounds. Wireable on one task observed for half the frame or more at 2018 or later.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 7.5mean 1-10
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A173)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Individuals using the internetWorld Bank (IT.NET.USER.ZS), 2024
79.7 % of population, rank 73 of 125. Share of the population that used the internet in the last three months.
A condition, not scored: access to the basic tool of modern agency is what people have to act with, not a record of them acting (D122). Saturates near 95%, which compresses the top of the range.
Financial account ownershipWorld Bank (FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS), 2024
56.8 % aged 15+, rank 85 of 122. Adults with an account at a bank or mobile money provider.
A condition, not scored: holding an account is the precondition for almost any economic action, not the action (D122). Global Findex, published every three years.
Credit to the private sectorWorld Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS), 2025
51.8 % of GDP, rank 52 of 124. Domestic credit provided to the private sector by financial corporations.
A condition, not scored: financial depth is a stock of money available to actors, not what they do with it (D122). High values can also signal a credit bubble, so more is not always better.
Coordination
How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Government effectiveness
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_GE.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The WGI aggregate the opinions of experts and firms, and in this set the four WGI series correlate with each other between 0.93 and 0.98 while correlating with log GDP per capita at 0.91. That is one perception of national wealth counted in three dimensions. Cross-agency delivery records are the replacement and they are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Regulatory quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RQ.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. Same measurement as government effectiveness, filed under a different name, correlating with it above 0.93. See D23 and A4.
Logistics performance
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The LPI is a survey of international freight forwarders, so it records how a country looks to global logistics firms. A small country with a small port scores low whatever its state can organise, which is artefact A9. Container throughput and border time are observable and stay. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 48hours
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TRD.ACRS.BRDR.EXPT.BRDR.COMP.HR.DB1619)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 82.647percentage points from approved budget
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (GF.XPD.BUDG.ZS)
- History
University-industry collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Innovation Index
- History
- no data
Note: GII carries it, but the underlying item is a WEF executive opinion survey whose microdata is not inspectable. Excluded on principle 4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.845index 0-1
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2x_cspart)
- History
- one year
Public-private collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable dataset. PPP investment databases measure infrastructure finance, not collaboration capacity.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Customs clearance time for exportsWorld Bank (IC.CUS.DURS.EX), 2025
4.88 days, lower is better. Average number of days to clear direct exports through customs, as reported by manufacturing firms that export directly, in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys.
Days a manufacturer that exports directly says its goods took to clear customs, from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. It is the time the border took on firms' own shipments, current where the Doing Business border time this capability scores is frozen at 2019. It is not scored for two reasons. The number of firms behind each country's figure is published only in the survey microdata, and on a proxy from the published tables 37 of the 53 countries in the frame when it was checked clear 30 exporting firms; Mexico, the Philippines, Israel and nine others may not. And the question changed: surveys fielded from 2024 also ask how long release took across all border agencies, and drop an answer where customs alone took longer, so a country surveyed on both sides of the change can move severalfold with nothing at its border changing. India reads 17.3 days in 2022 and 2.5 in 2025, on more than 9,000 firms each time. No country in the frame has two surveys on the new questionnaire yet. Income is not why it is left out: it barely tracks log GDP per capita.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Interoperable QR immediate payments, built by the banks and the Banco Central de Bolivia
Bolivia's banks first offered QR payments under their own SIMPLE standard, and the Banco Central de Bolivia then made QR transfers interoperable across banks, cooperatives, housing lenders and development finance institutions with a universal standard compatible with the banks' codes, mandatory electronic channels and free transfers; immediate QR payments rose from 6 million operations in 2021 to 892 million in 2025, 86 percent of electronic fund transfer orders that year.
892 million operations, immediate payments by qr code processed in the year, 2025. 357,747 million bolivianos, nominal, value of immediate payments by qr code in the year, 2025. Banco Central de Bolivia, Informe de Vigilancia del Sistema de Pagos 2025, retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: The banking system launched its own QR standard, and the Banco Central de Bolivia then built a universal QR standard compatible with it into its settlement module, required every financial institution to offer electronic channels and free transfers, and settled QR payments through its module and the private clearing houses, so each institution's app could pay any account in the system.
Limits: Both numbers are data labels on Gráfico 17 of a 72-page PDF (PDF page 35, printed page 29), with the 86 percent share on Gráfico 18 on the next page; there is no machine-readable series. The central bank is the regulator, the standard-setter and the reporter, so this is the system's owner grading its own system. The collaboration mixes a private standard with a public mandate: the banking system built SIMPLE, the BCB built a compatible universal standard and imposed interoperability and free transfers, and private institutions and the clearing houses ACCL and UNILINK carried it out. The 2025 jump coincided with Bolivia's dollar shortage, fuel queues and rising inflation, which push people off cash; the value series is in nominal bolivianos and overstates real growth in a year of high inflation. A payment count does not show inclusion: the report gives no figure for first-time account holders. The series counts every immediate QR payment processed through the clearing houses and the BCB's settlement module, not only codes generated under QR BCB Bolivia: the banks' own SIMPLE QR standard came first, the BCB's 2021 vigilance report describes the BCB's compatible QR standard in its settlement module as due in the last quarter of 2022, and the BCB's QR page (https://www.bcb.gob.bo/?q=pagos_qr_bcb_bolivia) calls QR BCB 'un solo estándar universal compatible con todos los QR implementados por el sistema financiero'. The 2021 figure therefore predates the BCB standard, and the start year is the first year of the series, not the launch of either standard.
Trust
How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Rule of law
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RL.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite correlating with control of corruption above 0.95 and with log GDP per capita at 0.83. Court throughput and case clearance rates are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Control of corruption
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_CC.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite. It measures reputation for corruption, which is not the same thing as corruption, and it tracks income closely. Prosecution and audit records are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 591days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (ENF.CONT.DURS.DY)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 14.564% of firms
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 1.629scale 0-4 (never to always)
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp)
- History
- one year
Intentional homicide rate
downstream outcomeretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataper 100,000 people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (VC.IHR.PSRC.P5)
- History
- no data
Note: Added 2026-08-26 by D23 as the observable replacement for two retired WGI perception composites, and retired 2026-08-27 by D44 when the diagnostic built in D42 measured what it was doing. It raised this dimension's correlation with log GDP per capita by 0.288, from 0.096 to 0.385, the largest single wealth contribution anywhere in the model. It was added to fix wealth contamination and it was the wealth contamination. The dataset is sound and the objection is to what it measures here: homicide is driven heavily by organised crime, a society can be physically safe while trusting very little, and across this country set the variation it carries is mostly income. Behavioural trust measures remain a gap.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 8.5% agreeing
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A165)
- History
- one year
Trust in public institutions
perception proxyno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% expressing confidence
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD Trust Survey / WVS
- History
- no data
Note: The OECD survey covers members only. Mixing it with WVS items for India and South Africa would break comparability. The Joint EVS/WVS confidence battery (E069) reaches 37 countries from one release, and confidence in the courts (E069_17) is published beside Trust as a check under this id rather than scored: every item of the battery tested (courts, civil service, police, parliament and government) reads higher in the closed and electoral autocracies of the frame than in its democracies, which is deference as much as confidence (A13). The gap stays open for a measure that does not reward a court that cannot rule against the state. See D132.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 10.5% expressing trust
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (G007_34_B)
- History
- one year
Court case clearance rate
downstream outcomeno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of incoming cases
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- CEPEJ / OECD / national court statistics
- History
- no data
Note: Whether a court finishes what it starts, counted from case records rather than asked in a survey. D23 named it as the observable replacement for the two retired WGI composites and it has stayed unfilled since. CEPEJ publishes it for Council of Europe members and OECD for its own members, so no single publisher reaches this country set, and a harmonised series needs the project second source adapter. See D57.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Confidence in the courtsJoint EVS/WVS (E069_17), 2022
4.5 % a great deal, higher is better. Share of survey respondents saying they have a great deal of confidence in the justice system and courts, of the four answers a great deal, quite a lot, not very much and none at all, in the Joint EVS/WVS 2017 to 2022 survey round.
Confidence in the courts is the public half of what this capability asks: whether people expect the rules to be enforced when a stranger breaks them. It is not scored because the survey answer reads two things the number cannot tell apart. Where courts are independent, confidence is a judgment of how they perform. Where they answer to the state, it is also deference, and saying otherwise to an interviewer has a cost. In this frame the pattern runs the wrong way. India, the Philippines and Indonesia, all electoral autocracies in the V-Dem 2025 classification, lead on the share saying a great deal, and Vietnam and China, the two closed autocracies surveyed, lead once quite a lot is counted too. The ten electoral autocracies average 21.8 percent saying a great deal and the two closed autocracies 28.1, against 13.6 for liberal and 8.4 for electoral democracies. Scored, it would rank highest the states whose courts are least able to rule against them. Income is not why it is left out: the share correlates about -0.18 with log GDP per capita. The value is the share saying a great deal; the share saying quite a lot is in the source note.
Learning
How effectively does the country acquire, distribute, and update knowledge?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Human Capital Index
direct capability measuremissing- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-1
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (HD.HCI.OVRL)
- History
- no data
Note: Uses learning-adjusted years of schooling, which is why it is preferred over raw attainment. Last full round is 2020.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 40.646% of firms
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.TRNG.ZS)
- History
Adult learning participation
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Eurostat / OECD PIAAC
- History
- no data
Note: The best available measure of continuous learning capacity, and it exists only for European and OECD members.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0.616ratio to world average
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Tertiary enrolmentWorld Bank (SE.TER.ENRR)
No value for this country. Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education.
A condition, not scored: enrolment counts people in formal education and records nothing learned (D122).
Public education expenditureWorld Bank (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS), 2024
7.5 % of GDP, rank 4 of 125. Government expenditure on education as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: public spending on education is a pure input, and learning is what the dimension asks about (D122).
Vocational share of secondaryWorld Bank (SE.SEC.ENRL.VO.ZS), 2018
63.9 % of secondary, rank 1 of 125. Vocational pupils as a share of total secondary enrolment.
A condition, not scored: the share of secondary pupils on a vocational track describes how a school system is built, not what anyone learns in it, and higher is not unambiguously better (D141). It marks a route into skilled work that does not run through university. Learning reads research citation impact, firm training and the human capital index instead.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Yo, sí puedo national literacy campaign and post-literacy programme
Bolivia's Ministry of Education reports that its national literacy programmes, run as 'Yo, sí puedo' from 2006 to 2008 and continued as a post-literacy programme from 2009, taught more than one million people over 15 to read and write between 2006 and 2017, 74% of them women.
1,000,000 people, people made literate by the national literacy and post-literacy programmes (more than), 2006-2017. Bolivia Ministry of Education, Vice-Ministry of Alternative and Special Education, Dirección General de Post-alfabetización, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Bolivia's Ministry of Education ran a time-bound national literacy campaign with a standardised audiovisual method and local volunteer facilitators in community centres, then converted its graduates into the enrolment base of a standing post-literacy directorate.
Limits: The ministry that ran the programmes reports its own cumulative total, as a rounded 'more than one million', with no annual series and no independent verification; the same page gives a second, malformed figure ('1.oo1,372') for 2006 to 2008 alone, which, if accurate, leaves almost no growth in the cumulative total after 2008, so the two figures are either loosely rounded or show the post-literacy phase adding few new literates, and the page is dated 11 May 2016 while citing 2017 data, so it was edited after publication. A count of people made literate over twelve years is not the construct's share of adults in education or training in the last 12 months, and basic literacy is the narrowest form of adult learning; nothing here shows retention of literacy, completion of post-literacy, or participation by adults who were already literate. The page's illiteracy rate of 2.5% in 2017 is not used as a metric: it is not sourced to INE on the page, and higher government-cited rates for 2023 and 2024 appear in state press, so the rate series is contested. The 'Yo, sí puedo' method and early delivery relied on Cuban and Venezuelan support, which a reviewer may weigh against test three, though the programme was mandated and run by Bolivia's ministry.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 32.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.45
I hold 32: high university enrolment that panelist B notes does not translate into research-linked institutions, and without HCI or PISA the learning outcomes the system produces are unevidenced.
- 33.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
Hold. The panel agrees: firm training is mid-frame, citation impact low, and no HCI or PISA; informal trade and craft apprenticeship and high university enrolment add distributed learning that keeps me at the indicator line.
- 32.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
I hold 32, with the Human Capital Index missing and no PISA participation, so the score rests on firm training and a weak citation record. Informal apprenticeship and high university enrolment, which B cites, are unmeasured and enrolment is an input, not a learning outcome.
Experimentation
How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved?
+0.2 over 10 years, from 2.2 in 2016 to 2.4 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 5per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 4838per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 23per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 117483per million people
- Year
- 2026. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- GitHub Innovation Graph (data/repositories.csv)
- History
- no data
Venture deals
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD / national VC associations
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The id keeps its first name so evidence records, links and published files still resolve. The row asked for venture capital deployed as a share of GDP, a level of financial depth of the kind private credit is (D122). A count of first rounds counts attempts started with outside risk money, which is what this capability asks about, and a large round counts once. Candidates, none wireable: the OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Financing scoreboard carried venture capital for 6 of the 16 countries the frame held on 2026-08-26, as amounts in national currency, latest year 2022, with Brazil, India, South Africa and Singapore absent (D21); national venture capital associations publish counts on their own definitions; commercial deal databases cover the world and are not inspectable (D10). Wireable on an inspectable deal count with one definition of a first round for half the frame or more. Read A1 before treating this dimension as measured.
Early-stage entrepreneurial activity
direct capability measuremissing- Raw value
- no data% aged 18-64
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, TEA rate)
- History
- no data
Note: From the GEM Adult Population Survey, entered by hand because GEM has no open API. TEA counts every new business, so necessity self-employment scores the same as a funded startup, which is why Chile and Argentina sit above the United States here. Read it as how many people are trying, not as how much value the attempts create. GEM does not run every economy every year: Singapore last took part in 2014 and the recency term marks that value down hard.
Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure
perception proxymissing- Raw value
- no data% not deterred
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, fear of failure rate)
- History
- no data
Note: Stored as 100 minus the published GEM fear of failure rate, so the direction matches the rest of the registry. GEM measures that rate among adults who already see good opportunities, not among all adults, so the denominator differs from the label. Attitudinal: bankruptcy law and time to discharge would be the observable substitute and are still worth wiring beside it.
Firms through regulatory sandboxes
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no datafirms per million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national regulators
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the number and breadth of live sandboxes, which is a policy stock: a regime can exist with nobody in it. It now counts what passes through: firms a regulator let test under relaxed rules, and firms that came out, authorised, withdrawn or failed. Regulators publish cohort lists and exit reports one by one. The evidence corpus holds 22 records against this row, most of them counts of firms admitted or exited, each on the definition and window of its own regulator, and no register assembles them on one definition (O1 triage sweep, 2026-10-01). A realistic candidate for Envisioning to build from those lists. Wireable on a register that counts admissions and completions on one definition for half the frame or more.
University spinouts
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national TTO associations
- History
- no data
Note: Reported nationally with incompatible definitions of what counts as a spinout.
Business share of R&D
capability inputretired, see notes- Raw value
- no data% of R&D
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD MSTI / RICYT
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-10-02. The only working source, OECD MSTI joined with RICYT for Latin America, covers 34 of the 53 countries then in the frame, but the row reads the make-up of a spending stock: who performs the R&D a country pays for. R&D spending itself is a condition since D122, and the share is high both where business research is large (Israel) and where total research is tiny and one firm dominates it (Thailand). State enterprises count as business, so China and Vietnam read their ownership model. UIS stopped publishing the series in 2023. Firms trying new things are read through patents, trademarks, designs and entrepreneurship instead. See D142.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 9.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
I move one point toward panelist B but hold far below 28: El Alto merchant networks are durable trading institutions, yet necessity informality with no formal route for credit, registration or clean exit is adaptation rather than testing new approaches that can scale.
- 24.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
I come down from 28 since A is right that much informal entrepreneurship is necessity driven. I hold the disagreement: El Alto's Aymara merchant networks and cross-border trade continually test products, routes and financing, and the repository rate is not trivial; registries simply do not see it.
- 8.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
I rise from 5 to 8. El Alto merchant networks and Cholet architecture are documented adaptive economic activity, but A is right that informal entrepreneurship is mostly necessity driven, and necessity entrepreneurship is not capability. I do not follow B to 28.
Adaptability
How effectively can the system respond when circumstances change?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 2.967% of labour force
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 21.4% of unemployed
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- ILOSTAT (DF_UNE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_DUR_NB)
- History
- one year
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.274index 0-1, lower = more diversified
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices)
- History
- one year
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 1.44% of products not exported competitively at the start
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ))
- History
- one year
Disaster preparedness and recovery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- INFORM / UNDRR
- History
- no data
Note: No source observes a country preparing for or recovering from a real shock. INFORM publishes its lack of coping capacity apart from hazard and exposure, but that dimension averages government self-assessments and governance perception indices with stocks such as roads, phones and physicians, which is the perception layer D23 retired plus conditions money buys (D122). Sendai and WHO reporting are governments grading themselves. A warning-reach survey item is a check candidate. See the disaster preparedness memo.
Institutional responsiveness
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 2 records- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No dataset exists. Measurable in principle from legislative and regulatory timestamps, which no one has assembled comparably.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Labour force participationWorld Bank (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), 2025
80.5 % aged 15+, rank 13 of 125. Share of the working-age population in the labour force.
A condition, not scored: how much of the population is in the labor force at all is what a country has to reallocate, a level set by norms, schooling and age, not a record of it reallocating (D141). Participation norms confound it, especially for India. Adaptability reads reallocation through long-term unemployment and export diversification instead.
Fixed broadband subscriptionsWorld Bank (IT.NET.BBND.P2), 2024
12.1 per 100 people, rank 74 of 125. Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people.
A condition, not scored: installed infrastructure is what a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D122). Penalizes mobile-first countries such as India and South Africa.
Electricity transmission lossesWorld Bank (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), 2023
8.9 % of output, rank 54 of 117. Power lost in transmission and distribution, including unbilled use.
A condition, not scored: the state of the grid, and whether its operator can bill what it delivers, is infrastructure a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D141). Read it beside broadband, the other installed network beside Adaptability.
Informal employmentILOSTAT (DF_SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT), 2025
85.6 % of employment, rank 80 of 102. Informal employment as a share of total employment, SDG indicator 8.3.1.
A condition, not scored: how much work carries no contract, registration or social protection describes the labor market a country reallocates through, not it reallocating (D150). Read it beside the unemployment rate: where most work is informal, a person who loses a job takes any work within weeks, so a low rate is not a fluid market. Its direction for Adaptability cannot be defended, since informal work is both the slack that absorbs a shock and the precarity that keeps a worker from moving up, so the rank orders values and is not a verdict. Comparability is weak: the European values come from an income survey (EU-SILC) with a proxy definition, and the rest from labor force or household surveys processed by the ILO. ILOSTAT has no value for the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, China, the Philippines or Cuba, and some values are old (Haiti and Nicaragua 2012).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Bono Juana Azurduy maternal and child health transfer
Bolivia's Bono Juana Azurduy opened its 2024 payment round through 47 authorised financial institutions in all 340 municipalities and six Indigenous territories, tying the transfer to prenatal, delivery and early-childhood health checks; the programme reported 1,525,566 pregnant women and 1,783,936 children reached between 2009 and 2023.
340 municipalities, municipalities covered by the 2024 payment round, 2024-01. 47 institutions, authorised financial institutions, 2024-01. Bolivia Ministry of Health and Sports, Bono Juana Azurduy 2024 payment notice, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Bolivia linked a modest cash incentive to a sequence of prenatal, delivery and child-health checks, then used a nationwide bank network and mobile intersectoral brigades to move the programme beyond urban clinics and into Indigenous territories.
Limits: Municipal and financial-channel coverage shows administrative reach, not whether every eligible mother is paid on time, attends the required visits or experiences better maternal and child outcomes. The ministry reports the programme's own totals, while the record does not establish the causal effect of the transfer or the quality of the health facilities where conditions are verified.
Renta Dignidad non-contributory old-age pension
Bolivia's Renta Dignidad, created by Law 3791 in 2007 and paid since 2008, reached 1,241,440 beneficiaries in 2024 with Bs5.289 billion disbursed through the national social-security administration.
1,241,440 people, renta dignidad beneficiaries, 2024. 5,289,000,000 Bolivian bolivianos, renta dignidad disbursement, 2024. Gestora Pública de la Seguridad Social de Largo Plazo, Social Security in Bolivia report, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Bolivia converted a universal old-age entitlement into a predictable non-contributory payment, administered through the long-term social-security system and financed as a standing national obligation rather than a short project.
Limits: Beneficiary and disbursement totals show the scale of a transfer system, not whether the benefit is adequate, paid reliably in every remote area or sufficient to reduce old-age poverty. The report is an administrative account and does not provide a counterfactual estimate of welfare effects or the programme's fiscal resilience under demographic change.
Bolivia's health authorities reported to WHO that 7,505,389 people, 64 per 100 population, had received at least one COVID-19 vaccine dose by 29 December 2023, from a first dose given on 30 January 2021, with 6,307,628 (54 per 100) completing the primary series.
7,505,389 people, people vaccinated with at least one covid-19 vaccine dose, 2023-12-29. 54 per 100 population, people who completed the primary series (last dose), 2023-12-29. World Health Organization, COVID-19 dashboard vaccination data (vaccination-data.csv), retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: Bolivia's health ministry ran a national COVID-19 campaign through its routine immunisation network and mass vaccination points, and reached a majority of the population with a first dose within three years.
Limits: The figures are Bolivia's own reports to WHO (DATA_SOURCE 'REPORTING'), with no independent coverage survey behind them. Nearly half the population never completed the primary series (54 per 100), first-dose reach was 64 per 100, and boosters reached 2,521,192 people, 22 per 100, so the record shows a partial delivery, well below the near-universal reach of the strongest campaigns; it is filed because the campaign did reach a majority nationally, on the same terms as ven-covid-vaccination (50 per 100 completed). The VACCINES_USED field is empty, so the record cannot show which products were used or where the doses came from, and evidences distribution only. The per-100 rates divide by WHO's population estimate. Vaccination is a response to one shock, not proof of general preparedness, and the file was last updated in December 2023. The source is a CSV with no prose; the numbers are read from one row. The WHO dashboard address covid19.who.int/who-data/vaccination-data.csv now returns an HTML page, so the cited URL is the blob the dashboard serves, the same one ven-covid-vaccination cites.
Building
How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems?
+4.5 over 10 years, from 12.9 in 2016 to 17.4 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 13.066% of GDP
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 8.794% of manufactured exports
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS)
- History
Logistics infrastructure quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.INFR.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. An LPI sub-index, so the same freight-forwarder survey as logistics performance and the same problem. Electricity connection speed stays as the observable infrastructure measure in this dimension. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 92.174score 0-100
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.ELC.TIME.DFRN)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0.062index
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (EF.EFM.UNIV.XD)
- History
Large project delivery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 3 records- Raw value
- no data% overrun
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: The single best measure of execution capability and there is no comparable international dataset. Assembling one is a defensible Envisioning project. Building mixes industrial output with state delivery capacity, and this indicator carries the delivery side: the other six indicators cannot see a national programme that was delivered. Documented deliveries are recorded in data/evidence and never scored, see D20.
Firm scale-up rate
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of firms
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD DynEmp
- History
- no data
Note: OECD business dynamics work covers members irregularly. Nothing comparable for India, Brazil or South Africa.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Output per workerWorld Bank (SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD), 2025
20,435 constant 2021 PPP $, rank 93 of 123. GDP per person employed, constant purchasing power parity.
A condition, not scored: output per worker is income per worker, the wealth the benchmark tests capability against, so it is published beside Building as context (D122).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Mi Teleférico urban cable-car network
Bolivia's Mi Teleférico network carried 78,715,401 passenger trips in 2024; its management report compared that result with a 97.7 million annual volume required for budget balance, or roughly 80% of the target while the system remained in service.
78,715,401 trips, passenger trips on the mi teleférico network, 2024. 97,700,000 trips, annual passenger volume required for budget balance, 2024 target. Mi Teleférico, 2024 management report, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Bolivia treated steep urban mobility as a network problem: a state company linked multiple cable-car lines, integrated fares and stations and expanded service incrementally rather than waiting for a single road corridor to solve access across La Paz and El Alto.
Limits: Passenger trips show use of the network, not whether construction stayed on schedule, whether fares cover operating and renewal costs or whether travel time and access improved for low-income residents. The budget-balance target is a management benchmark, not an independent estimate of the system's full social value or lifecycle cost.
Industrial lithium carbonate plant below design capacity
Bolivia's state lithium company doubled lithium-carbonate output to 2,064 tonnes in 2024 after its industrial plant began operating, but the Ministry of Economy reported that technical problems with evaporation ponds and the water-treatment plant kept production below the project's projected capacity of 15,000 tonnes a year.
2,064 metric tonnes, lithium carbonate produced, 2024. 15,000 metric tonnes, projected annual plant capacity, 2024. Bolivia Ministry of Economy and Public Finance, Economic Bulletin 2024, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Bolivia pursued a state-led value chain from brine extraction to industrial lithium carbonate, retaining control of the resource and plant while learning that evaporation chemistry, water treatment and process reliability—not only mine ownership—set the usable production ceiling.
Limits: Output and design capacity establish a large production gap, but they do not by themselves show the plant's full economics, product quality, environmental effects, downstream contracts or whether the technical bottlenecks were later resolved. The ministry's bulletin is an official macroeconomic account, not an independent engineering or audit report.
El Mutún steel complex, inaugurated in 2025 and found never to have operated
Bolivia's Empresa Siderúrgica del Mutún, whose turnkey contract with Sinosteel was awarded in 2016 and whose complex the President inaugurated in February 2025, reported in its 2026 initial accountability review that the project stood at 92% physical progress against 100% accumulated financial execution, that its own supervision found the complex had never entered operation, and that it had served notice of intent to terminate the contract in January 2026.
92 %, physical progress of the mutún steel project, 2026 (initial accountability review). 100 %, accumulated financial execution of the eximbank and treasury financed contract, 2026 (initial accountability review). Empresa Siderúrgica del Mutún (state steel company), Rendición Pública de Cuentas Inicial 2026, published by Bolivia's Ministry of Mining and Metallurgy, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Bolivia's Ministry of Mining had its state steel company sign a single turnkey design-build-operate contract with a Chinese state contractor, financed 85% by a China Eximbank credit, and accepted provisional and final receptions of each plant before the complex had run as a whole; the next administration's site supervision rejected those receptions.
Limits: The source is a slide presentation, not an audit: the figures are read off slides whose PDF text extracts garbled, and a reviewer will need to open slide 11 to check them. The review was written by the company's management under the government that took office in late 2025, which has an interest in blaming the previous administration and the contractor; Sinosteel answered the termination notice on 11 February 2026 and the dispute is unresolved, and the external audit and Contraloría opinion the review schedules had not been published at retrieval. The 100% financial execution covers the EXIMBANK and Treasury tranche only; an additional FINPRO credit stood at 55.79%. No official baseline schedule was opened, so the record carries no percentage schedule overrun, and the 2020 suspension under the interim government is part of the delay. The contract amendment from USD 422.6 million to USD 443.98 million on slide 13 is legible only as chart labels and is not used as the metric. The status 'eroded' records the withdrawal of a completion the state had declared in 2025, not the loss of an operating peak, because the plant never produced at scale; a reviewer may prefer to read it as a failed delivery.