downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 130.35articles per million people
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC)
- History
Honduras
Strongest usable evidence: Adaptability, at 64.1. Raise Anticipation first, at 24.5. Trust needs more evidence: confidence is 0.22.
Raise, lowest first
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 24.5 |
| Building | 0.57 | 35.3 |
Measure before managing
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Trust | 0.22 | 71.6 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.26 | 39.7 |
| Experimentation | 0.28 | 2.4 |
| Coordination | 0.37 | 78.1 |
| Learning | 0.40 | 35.3 |
| Agency | 0.41 | 28.7 |
These lists are the country's capability agenda, computed from the scores. Read the full agenda. It names comparable evidence from other countries and the 18 gaps in the registry.
Why this country is included: Low-capacity state where remittances stand in for absent institutions.
Anticipation24.5Confidence0.46usableHow capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
Honduras
Read Honduras beside up to three other countries, down to the indicator behind every row.
- Usable or good evidence
- Thin evidence, hollow point. The dashes open further as confidence falls.
- The point still sits at the score, because confidence never moves it.
- Click any axis to see every country on that dimension.
A score from 0 to 100 is a position inside the frame that all the benchmark countries set: zero is the weakest on a dimension and 100 is the strongest. A score of 10 puts a country near the floor of that frame and does not mean 10 percent of a capability.
| Coordination | 0.37 | 3 of 5 | 0.78 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Trust | 0.22 | 3 of 7 | 0.64 | no trend | 36.0 | -35.6 | |
| Adaptability | 0.62 | 4 of 6 | 1.00 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Shared Purpose | 0.26 | 2 of 6 | 0.83 | no trend | 31.0 | -8.7 | |
| Learning | 0.40 | 3 of 4 | 0.58 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Building | 0.57 | 4 of 6 | 0.90 | -1.7(3) | no data | no estimate | |
| Agency | 0.41 | 3 of 5 | 0.72 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 2 of 4 | 0.96 | +6.0(2) | 21.0 | -3.5 | |
| Experimentation | 0.28 | 4 of 9 | 0.69 | no trend | 6.0 | +3.6 |
How to read this page
Each dimension has a score from 0 to 100. It shows where this country sits among all 125 countries in the comparison frame, not a percentage. Confidence sits beside the score. A dashed radar edge and hollow point mean the evidence is thin. The records below show each indicator, its raw value, year and source.
A panel estimate, when present, is a separate judgment about what the indicators miss. It does not change the score or confidence. The panel's provenance is shown beside the estimate.
- direct capability measuredirect capability measure Measures the thing itself.
- capability inputcapability input Measures something that supports the capability.
- downstream outcomedownstream outcome Measures a result that usually follows from the capability.
- perception proxyperception proxy Records what people or experts say, not what they did.
Confidence
- very thin0.00 to 0.25
The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.
- thin0.25 to 0.45
A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.
- usable0.45 to 0.65
Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.
- good0.65 and above
Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.
A row marked no dataset exists is a gap: the benchmark wants data that nobody publishes. A retired row has a source this project chose not to use. Both reduce confidence. The glossary defines each term, and the limits page lists where these numbers are known to be wrong about the world.
Anticipation
How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
+6.0 over 10 years, from 18.5 in 2016 to 24.5 on 2 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 65.683index 0-100
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IQ.SPI.OVRL)
- History
Government foresight capacity
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this.
Long-horizon research commitments
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of new grants
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the share of R&D spending classed as basic research, which is the make-up of a spending stock, the construct D142 retired business R&D share for. OECD MSTI publishes that share for its members only, and UNESCO UIS no longer serves R&D by type of research (construct audit, 2026-10-02). The behaviour behind it is a funder committing to a horizon: a grant awarded for five years or more is a decision to wait for a result. Untried: no memo has triaged a grant register. National funders publish award lists one by one with their own durations, and commercial grant aggregators fail the inspectability rule. Wireable on a grant-level register with award and end dates, on one definition of a competitive public grant, for half the frame or more.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
R&D expenditureWorld Bank (GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS), 2019
0.06 % of GDP, rank 109 of 118. Gross domestic expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: money committed to research is what a country spends, and spending it does not show the country reads the future well (D122).
Researchers in R&DWorld Bank (SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6), 2019
188 per million people, rank 79 of 114. Full-time-equivalent researchers per million people.
A condition, not scored: a standing stock of people who could investigate is what a country has, not a record of what they found (D122). Correlates with income but survives size normalization.
Secure internet serversWorld Bank (IT.NET.SECR.P6), 2024
149 per million people, rank 94 of 125. Servers using encryption in internet transactions, per million people.
A condition, not scored: a diffusion stock of digital adoption that money buys, not an act of anticipation (D122). Spans four orders of magnitude, so its rank is read on the published value and its correlations on the logged one.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 19.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
Panelist B's river-basin community early-warning networks are a modest institutional channel, so I move up one to 19. Repeated devastation from Mitch through Eta and Iota without a durable national resilience programme shows weak institutional anticipation.
- 22.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
Weak research and middling statistics, and A's point that Eta and Iota in 2020 met no durable resilience programme two decades after Mitch is one I cannot answer. Community river-basin early-warning networks are real but small, so I come down three points.
- 21.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
Repeated hurricane devastation with limited learning between events, as A and B both note, shows weak institutional anticipation. Mid-range statistics and community basin early-warning networks stop me going lower.
Agency
How able are individuals and organizations to turn an intention into action?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.374per 1,000 aged 15-64
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 42days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.DURS.MA.DY)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 11count
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.PROC.MA.NO)
- History
Adults doing digital tasks
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- ITU / UNESCO UIS (SDG 4.4.1, ICT skills by type)
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked whether adults can perform standard digital tasks, which reads a skill level, the kind of stock D122 moved out of the scores with internet users. It now counts the act: a person who did the task. It is not the internet users condition beside it, which counts access. Candidate: ITU ICT skills by type (SDG 4.4.1) through the UNESCO UIS API, probed 2026-10-02. Sent a message with an attached file reaches 33 of the 53 countries then in the frame, 25 at 2018 or later, with no United States, India or China and most of Africa and Central America missing; two other task items reach 31 and 16. The items are self-reported and the task list has changed between rounds. Wireable on one task observed for half the frame or more at 2018 or later.
Perceived control over life
perception proxymissing- Raw value
- no datamean 1-10
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A173)
- History
- no data
Note: A perception: the publisher-weighted mean, on a 1 to 10 scale, of how much freedom of choice and control respondents feel they have over the way their life turns out, from the official Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2022 results table, release 5.0.0. It observes the felt capacity to act, not action. The table prints the mean to one decimal and no top-box share, so the row stores the mean and ties are common. Fieldwork years differ by up to six years: the 37 countries emitted were surveyed between 2017 (eight, the US among them) and 2023 (India), and every value is stamped with the release year 2022. Response style on 10-point scales differs across cultures, and a closed autocracy can read high: Vietnam and Nicaragua sit near the top of the frame. Countries with separate EVS and WVS samples (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands) are held, as for interpersonal trust. See D127 and A15.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Individuals using the internetWorld Bank (IT.NET.USER.ZS), 2024
58.6 % of population, rank 93 of 125. Share of the population that used the internet in the last three months.
A condition, not scored: access to the basic tool of modern agency is what people have to act with, not a record of them acting (D122). Saturates near 95%, which compresses the top of the range.
Financial account ownershipWorld Bank (FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS), 2024
42.4 % aged 15+, rank 107 of 122. Adults with an account at a bank or mobile money provider.
A condition, not scored: holding an account is the precondition for almost any economic action, not the action (D122). Global Findex, published every three years.
Credit to the private sectorWorld Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS), 2024
78.5 % of GDP, rank 26 of 124. Domestic credit provided to the private sector by financial corporations.
A condition, not scored: financial depth is a stock of money available to actors, not what they do with it (D122). High values can also signal a credit bubble, so more is not always better.
Coordination
How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Government effectiveness
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_GE.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The WGI aggregate the opinions of experts and firms, and in this set the four WGI series correlate with each other between 0.93 and 0.98 while correlating with log GDP per capita at 0.91. That is one perception of national wealth counted in three dimensions. Cross-agency delivery records are the replacement and they are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Regulatory quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RQ.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. Same measurement as government effectiveness, filed under a different name, correlating with it above 0.93. See D23 and A4.
Logistics performance
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The LPI is a survey of international freight forwarders, so it records how a country looks to global logistics firms. A small country with a small port scores low whatever its state can organise, which is artefact A9. Container throughput and border time are observable and stay. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 108hours
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TRD.ACRS.BRDR.EXPT.BRDR.COMP.HR.DB1619)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 99.889percentage points from approved budget
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (GF.XPD.BUDG.ZS)
- History
University-industry collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Innovation Index
- History
- no data
Note: GII carries it, but the underlying item is a WEF executive opinion survey whose microdata is not inspectable. Excluded on principle 4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.754index 0-1
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2x_cspart)
- History
- one year
Public-private collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable dataset. PPP investment databases measure infrastructure finance, not collaboration capacity.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Customs clearance time for exportsWorld Bank (IC.CUS.DURS.EX), 2016
3.811 days, lower is better. Average number of days to clear direct exports through customs, as reported by manufacturing firms that export directly, in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys.
Days a manufacturer that exports directly says its goods took to clear customs, from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. It is the time the border took on firms' own shipments, current where the Doing Business border time this capability scores is frozen at 2019. It is not scored for two reasons. The number of firms behind each country's figure is published only in the survey microdata, and on a proxy from the published tables 37 of the 53 countries in the frame when it was checked clear 30 exporting firms; Mexico, the Philippines, Israel and nine others may not. And the question changed: surveys fielded from 2024 also ask how long release took across all border agencies, and drop an answer where customs alone took longer, so a country surveyed on both sides of the change can move severalfold with nothing at its border changing. India reads 17.3 days in 2022 and 2.5 in 2025, on more than 9,000 firms each time. No country in the frame has two surveys on the new questionnaire yet. Income is not why it is left out: it barely tracks log GDP per capita.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Empresa Energía Honduras loss-reduction partnership, and its reversal
Honduras's state utility ENEE awarded Empresa Energía Honduras a public-private partnership contract in December 2015, with service starting in 2016, to run national distribution and cut technical and non-technical losses by 17%. Distribution losses fell from 33.38% to 27.11% by February 2018, rose to 35.37% by December 2020 and stood at 30.77% in December 2021. The state intervened the contract and took distribution back when it ended in August 2023.
30.77 % of energy, electricity distribution losses, december 2021 (technical and non-technical), 2021-12. 27.11 % of energy, lowest distribution losses under the partnership (february 2018), the gain that was lost, 2018-02. Secretaría de Energía de Honduras, Dirección General de Electricidad y Mercados, Informe Estadístico Anual del Subsector Eléctrico Nacional 2021 (Tabla 11, from ENEE Subgerencia de Planificación y Gestión Comercial), retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: ENEE, through a Congress-approved PPP trust supervised by SAPP and an external supervisor, handed national distribution and loss recovery to a private operator paid from distribution revenue. When losses rose, the state intervened the contract and then let it lapse, moving loss recovery into its own Programa Nacional para la Reducción de Pérdidas.
Limits: The loss series is ENEE's own commercial accounting, republished by the Energy Secretariat under the government that intervened the contract and campaigned against it, so the source is not neutral. The table stops in December 2021. The 2022 and 2023 values, including the roughly 37 to 38 percent widely reported when the contract ended, appear only in press coverage, and this record does not carry them. The SEN text does not attribute the 2016 to 2018 fall to EEH by name. The 2020 rise coincides with COVID-19 lockdowns and hurricanes Eta and Iota, so not all of the reversal can be laid on the operator. The contract was intervened and then expired at the end of its term in August 2023. It was not cancelled outright, and 'dismantled' here means the partnership model ended and ENEE took distribution back, not that a court annulled it. The SAPP fact sheet has copy errors: a malformed start date, and a repayment source copied from an airport sheet ('COBROS POR SERVICIOS AEROPORTUARIOS'). The 17% target comes from SAPP's project description, not from the contract text. A loss percentage measures the outcome of the partnership and says nothing directly about how deep the collaboration was. It is evidence that a structured government-firm arrangement on a national goal was tried at national scale and failed, not a measure of collaboration.
Trust
How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Rule of law
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RL.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite correlating with control of corruption above 0.95 and with log GDP per capita at 0.83. Court throughput and case clearance rates are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Control of corruption
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_CC.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite. It measures reputation for corruption, which is not the same thing as corruption, and it tracks income closely. Prosecution and audit records are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 920days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (ENF.CONT.DURS.DY)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 8.746% of firms
- Year
- 2016. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 3.089scale 0-4 (never to always)
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp)
- History
- one year
Intentional homicide rate
downstream outcomeretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataper 100,000 people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (VC.IHR.PSRC.P5)
- History
- no data
Note: Added 2026-08-26 by D23 as the observable replacement for two retired WGI perception composites, and retired 2026-08-27 by D44 when the diagnostic built in D42 measured what it was doing. It raised this dimension's correlation with log GDP per capita by 0.288, from 0.096 to 0.385, the largest single wealth contribution anywhere in the model. It was added to fix wealth contamination and it was the wealth contamination. The dataset is sound and the objection is to what it measures here: homicide is driven heavily by organised crime, a society can be physically safe while trusting very little, and across this country set the variation it carries is mostly income. Behavioural trust measures remain a gap.
Generalised interpersonal trust
perception proxymissing- Raw value
- no data% agreeing
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A165)
- History
- no data
Note: Share answering that most people can be trusted in the official Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2022 results table, release 5.0.0. The adapter uses the publisher-weighted country results, emits only countries with one survey row, and holds countries with separate EVS and WVS samples until the respondent-level weights can be pooled reproducibly. See D57 and D64.
Trust in public institutions
perception proxyno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% expressing confidence
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD Trust Survey / WVS
- History
- no data
Note: The OECD survey covers members only. Mixing it with WVS items for India and South Africa would break comparability. The Joint EVS/WVS confidence battery (E069) reaches 37 countries from one release, and confidence in the courts (E069_17) is published beside Trust as a check under this id rather than scored: every item of the battery tested (courts, civil service, police, parliament and government) reads higher in the closed and electoral autocracies of the frame than in its democracies, which is deference as much as confidence (A13). The gap stays open for a measure that does not reward a court that cannot rule against the state. See D132.
Cooperation beyond the in-group
perception proxymissing- Raw value
- no data% expressing trust
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (G007_34_B)
- History
- no data
Note: The distinction that makes this dimension worth measuring: whether trust reaches a person with no tie to the respondent. Generalised trust asks about "most people", which a respondent can fill with their own circle; this item names the stranger. China is the clearest case, high on most people and low on a person met for the first time. The value is the publisher-weighted share answering trust completely plus the share answering trust somewhat, the one sum of two printed columns the adapter stores, exact to about 0.1, over all respondents including don't know and no answer. EVS and WVS ask the same question on the same four-point scale; where one country has both samples, the WVS share is a median 2.2 points higher. Trust in people of another nationality (G007_36_B), which the row once also named, is left out because it reads attitudes to foreigners as much as trust. Fieldwork runs from 2017 to 2023 and every value carries the release year 2022. Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands are held, as for interpersonal trust. See D140.
Court case clearance rate
downstream outcomeno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of incoming cases
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- CEPEJ / OECD / national court statistics
- History
- no data
Note: Whether a court finishes what it starts, counted from case records rather than asked in a survey. D23 named it as the observable replacement for the two retired WGI composites and it has stayed unfilled since. CEPEJ publishes it for Council of Europe members and OECD for its own members, so no single publisher reaches this country set, and a harmonised series needs the project second source adapter. See D57.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 35.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
I hold at 35: a captured judiciary, the expulsion of MACCIH in 2020 and a former president convicted abroad for narcotrafficking show courts that do not underwrite cooperation, whatever the compliance row says. The bribery figure is from 2016 and extortion networks erode cooperation beyond kin.
- 38.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
All three of us discount the 2016 bribery figure and the high court compliance reading against judicial capture, the expulsion of MACCIH and a former president's narcotrafficking conviction. Church and patronato groups sustain local cooperation, but extortion erodes it, so I come down four points.
- 36.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
The bribery figure is from 2016 and court compliance looks high against documented judicial capture, the expelled anti-corruption mission and extortion networks. Church and community groups give some cooperation, so I sit mid-range between A and B.
Learning
How effectively does the country acquire, distribute, and update knowledge?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.481index 0-1
- Year
- 2020. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (HD.HCI.OVRL)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 47.657% of firms
- Year
- 2016. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.TRNG.ZS)
- History
Adult learning participation
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Eurostat / OECD PIAAC
- History
- no data
Note: The best available measure of continuous learning capacity, and it exists only for European and OECD members.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0.535ratio to world average
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Tertiary enrolmentWorld Bank (SE.TER.ENRR), 2024
23.3 % gross, rank 91 of 124. Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education.
A condition, not scored: enrolment counts people in formal education and records nothing learned (D122).
Public education expenditureWorld Bank (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS), 2023
4.6 % of GDP, rank 51 of 125. Government expenditure on education as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: public spending on education is a pure input, and learning is what the dimension asks about (D122).
Vocational share of secondaryWorld Bank (SE.SEC.ENRL.VO.ZS), 2019
34.1 % of secondary, rank 13 of 125. Vocational pupils as a share of total secondary enrolment.
A condition, not scored: the share of secondary pupils on a vocational track describes how a school system is built, not what anyone learns in it, and higher is not unambiguously better (D141). It marks a route into skilled work that does not run through university. Learning reads research citation impact, firm training and the human capital index instead.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Instituto Nacional de Formación Profesional (INFOP)
Honduras's national vocational training institute INFOP trained or certified 326,161 people in 2024 across six programmes and about 12,552 courses, figures the Tribunal Superior de Cuentas checked against instructors' start and end reports.
326,161 people, people trained or certified by infop across its six programmes (sum of six programme totals), 2024. 135,430 people, people certified in the largest programme, tourism, commerce and services, 2024. Tribunal Superior de Cuentas de Honduras, Informe RC-Nº32-2025-DVGP-INFOP, evaluation of INFOP's 2024 accountability report, retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: A levy-funded autonomous training institute, financed by employer and worker contributions, runs its own centres and contracts courses through business chambers and unions, and the supreme audit institution checks its delivery figures each year.
Limits: The total is computed by us: the audit report (pages 9 to 10 of the PDF) gives six programme results, 24,181 (agriculture), 15,834 (industrial), 135,430 (tourism, commerce and services), 65,035 (ICT), 84,665 (company agreements) and 1,016 (labour competency certification), and no single total; the press figure of 325,145 is the first five. The counts are participations per programme product, not unique adults, so a person who took two courses counts twice. Many courses are short, about 20 hours at the low end, and the list includes soft-skills topics such as customer service and motivation; the industrial programme serves ages 15 to 25, so part of the count is youth. The numbers originate in INFOP's own reports; the Tribunal verified them against signed instructor reports and a sample of 68 participants per product, not by a full audit. Over-execution of up to 165 percent against plan says the targets were low, not that demand was met. The 2021 evaluation records that INFOP cancelled its programme for vulnerable groups after the pandemic, so coverage of the poorest is not shown here. The started year is the 1972 decree law creating INFOP, stated in the report.
Experimentation
How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 8per million people
- Year
- 2018. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 2293per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 4per million people
- Year
- 2018. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 36469per million people
- Year
- 2026. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- GitHub Innovation Graph (data/repositories.csv)
- History
- no data
Venture deals
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD / national VC associations
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The id keeps its first name so evidence records, links and published files still resolve. The row asked for venture capital deployed as a share of GDP, a level of financial depth of the kind private credit is (D122). A count of first rounds counts attempts started with outside risk money, which is what this capability asks about, and a large round counts once. Candidates, none wireable: the OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Financing scoreboard carried venture capital for 6 of the 16 countries the frame held on 2026-08-26, as amounts in national currency, latest year 2022, with Brazil, India, South Africa and Singapore absent (D21); national venture capital associations publish counts on their own definitions; commercial deal databases cover the world and are not inspectable (D10). Wireable on an inspectable deal count with one definition of a first round for half the frame or more. Read A1 before treating this dimension as measured.
Early-stage entrepreneurial activity
direct capability measuremissing- Raw value
- no data% aged 18-64
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, TEA rate)
- History
- no data
Note: From the GEM Adult Population Survey, entered by hand because GEM has no open API. TEA counts every new business, so necessity self-employment scores the same as a funded startup, which is why Chile and Argentina sit above the United States here. Read it as how many people are trying, not as how much value the attempts create. GEM does not run every economy every year: Singapore last took part in 2014 and the recency term marks that value down hard.
Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure
perception proxymissing- Raw value
- no data% not deterred
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, fear of failure rate)
- History
- no data
Note: Stored as 100 minus the published GEM fear of failure rate, so the direction matches the rest of the registry. GEM measures that rate among adults who already see good opportunities, not among all adults, so the denominator differs from the label. Attitudinal: bankruptcy law and time to discharge would be the observable substitute and are still worth wiring beside it.
Firms through regulatory sandboxes
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no datafirms per million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national regulators
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the number and breadth of live sandboxes, which is a policy stock: a regime can exist with nobody in it. It now counts what passes through: firms a regulator let test under relaxed rules, and firms that came out, authorised, withdrawn or failed. Regulators publish cohort lists and exit reports one by one. The evidence corpus holds 22 records against this row, most of them counts of firms admitted or exited, each on the definition and window of its own regulator, and no register assembles them on one definition (O1 triage sweep, 2026-10-01). A realistic candidate for Envisioning to build from those lists. Wireable on a register that counts admissions and completions on one definition for half the frame or more.
University spinouts
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national TTO associations
- History
- no data
Note: Reported nationally with incompatible definitions of what counts as a spinout.
Business share of R&D
capability inputretired, see notes- Raw value
- no data% of R&D
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD MSTI / RICYT
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-10-02. The only working source, OECD MSTI joined with RICYT for Latin America, covers 34 of the 53 countries then in the frame, but the row reads the make-up of a spending stock: who performs the R&D a country pays for. R&D spending itself is a condition since D122, and the share is high both where business research is large (Israel) and where total research is tiny and one firm dominates it (Thailand). State enterprises count as business, so China and Vietnam read their ownership model. UIS stopped publishing the series in 2023. Firms trying new things are read through patents, trademarks, designs and entrepreneurship instead. See D142.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 6.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
I hold at 6: the ZEDE charter cities were an experiment, but their repeal by constitutional reform shows instability rather than structured trial and learning. Panelist B's speciality coffee is real producer adaptation organised partly through IHCAFE, but extortion and insecurity raise the cost of trying for most.
- 15.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Remittance-funded microbusinesses and coffee smallholders moving into speciality markets are trial and adoption the near-zero IP rows miss, so I stay well above C. Extortion and insecurity raise the cost of trying, and A is right that the ZEDE episode shows instability more than learning, so I trim three points.
- 5.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Formal outputs are near zero and dated. Smallholder market shifts are some adoption of new methods, but extortion raises the cost of trying and the ZEDE repeal shows instability, not learning, so I stay near the floor.
Adaptability
How effectively can the system respond when circumstances change?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 4.92% of labour force
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 34.2% of unemployed
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- ILOSTAT (DF_UNE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_DUR_NB)
- History
- one year
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.245index 0-1, lower = more diversified
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices)
- History
- one year
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 2.83% of products not exported competitively at the start
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ))
- History
- one year
Disaster preparedness and recovery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- INFORM / UNDRR
- History
- no data
Note: No source observes a country preparing for or recovering from a real shock. INFORM publishes its lack of coping capacity apart from hazard and exposure, but that dimension averages government self-assessments and governance perception indices with stocks such as roads, phones and physicians, which is the perception layer D23 retired plus conditions money buys (D122). Sendai and WHO reporting are governments grading themselves. A warning-reach survey item is a check candidate. See the disaster preparedness memo.
Institutional responsiveness
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No dataset exists. Measurable in principle from legislative and regulatory timestamps, which no one has assembled comparably.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Labour force participationWorld Bank (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), 2025
58.7 % aged 15+, rank 109 of 125. Share of the working-age population in the labour force.
A condition, not scored: how much of the population is in the labor force at all is what a country has to reallocate, a level set by norms, schooling and age, not a record of it reallocating (D141). Participation norms confound it, especially for India. Adaptability reads reallocation through long-term unemployment and export diversification instead.
Fixed broadband subscriptionsWorld Bank (IT.NET.BBND.P2), 2024
4.6 per 100 people, rank 92 of 125. Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people.
A condition, not scored: installed infrastructure is what a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D122). Penalizes mobile-first countries such as India and South Africa.
Electricity transmission lossesWorld Bank (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), 2023
33.8 % of output, rank 115 of 117. Power lost in transmission and distribution, including unbilled use.
A condition, not scored: the state of the grid, and whether its operator can bill what it delivers, is infrastructure a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D141). Read it beside broadband, the other installed network beside Adaptability.
Informal employmentILOSTAT (DF_SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT), 2017
82.6 % of employment, rank 75 of 102. Informal employment as a share of total employment, SDG indicator 8.3.1.
A condition, not scored: how much work carries no contract, registration or social protection describes the labor market a country reallocates through, not it reallocating (D150). Read it beside the unemployment rate: where most work is informal, a person who loses a job takes any work within weeks, so a low rate is not a fluid market. Its direction for Adaptability cannot be defended, since informal work is both the slack that absorbs a shock and the precarity that keeps a worker from moving up, so the rank orders values and is not a verdict. Comparability is weak: the European values come from an income survey (EU-SILC) with a proxy definition, and the rest from labor force or household surveys processed by the ILO. ILOSTAT has no value for the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, China, the Philippines or Cuba, and some values are old (Haiti and Nicaragua 2012).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Sistema Nacional de Emergencias 911
Honduras's Sistema Nacional de Emergencias 911 coordinated and attended 762,601 of 788,573 emergency tickets in 2024, reporting 96.71% efficacy through five regional coordination centres.
96.71 % of emergency tickets coordinated and attended, emergency-ticket coordination and attendance efficacy, 2024. 762,601 tickets, emergency tickets coordinated and attended, 2024. Sistema Nacional de Emergencias 911 de Honduras, Memoria Anual 2024, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Honduras put emergency intake, dispatch and inter-agency coordination behind one national 911 service, then operated regional coordination centres to route incidents to the relevant responders. A shared ticket and protocol gives separate agencies a common incident record instead of leaving callers to coordinate them.
Limits: The annual report's ticket counts and efficacy percentage show administrative throughput, not response time, dispatch accuracy, survival, crime reduction or equitable service quality. The figures are the emergency system's own operational accounting, and ticket counts can include calls requiring different agencies or multiple actions; the report does not independently audit the denominator or outcomes.
Conditional cash transfer shock response, and its suspension after 2022
Honduras widened its national conditional cash transfer during COVID-19 and Hurricanes Eta and Iota, from 1,153,069 beneficiaries in 2019 to 1,528,030 in 2020, and paid emergency top-ups to 24,891 households outside the roster in late 2020, but after the 2022 reorganisation of the social protection sector payments paused, rural payments resumed only in December 2022 and urban payments only in August 2025, after a three-year suspension.
3 years, suspension of urban cct payments after the 2022 transition, 2025-08. 1,528,030 beneficiaries, beneficiaries of social safety net programmes at the 2020 peak, 2020. World Bank, Implementation Completion and Results Report, Honduras Social Protection Integration Project (P152057), retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: The social protection ministry used an existing conditional cash transfer and its registry to add vulnerable households and pay top-ups after COVID-19 and two hurricanes, financed by an additional World Bank credit; a new administration then moved the programme to a new ministry and new targeting rules, and payments stopped until the new architecture could pay.
Limits: The publisher financed the project (US$30 million, then a US$70 million additional financing in June 2021) and rates it Substantial on efficacy; the figures are in a PDF (beneficiary counts and the top-up figure on page 19, paragraphs 31 and 33; the payment pause on page 14, paragraph 14; the three-year urban suspension in paragraph 39). The ICR states explicitly that the 1,528,030 peak (cumulative enrollment) and the 922,832 final-year caseload are distinct measures that should not be compared directly, and attributes the lower figure to a compressed implementation window, not a reversal of reach; the Borrower's completion report summarised in the annex gives 961,339 beneficiaries at closing (page 58), 62 percent of target. The record therefore does not use the final-year caseload as its metric: the erosion it documents is the payment pause, which the ICR does state (metric, the three-year urban suspension, paragraph 39, PDF page 21): payments stopped during the 2022 transition to SEDESOL and the Red Solidaria, with rural payments resuming in December 2022 and urban payments after a three-year suspension. The emergency top-up was small (24,891 households) and the source gives no elapsed time for it beyond late 2020. The 2019 to 2020 rise mixes horizontal expansion with routine enrolment. A change of government that redesigns a programme is a political choice, not only a loss of capacity.
Building
How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems?
-1.7 over 10 years, from 18.4 in 2016 to 16.7 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 14.97% of GDP
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 3.873% of manufactured exports
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS)
- History
Logistics infrastructure quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.INFR.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. An LPI sub-index, so the same freight-forwarder survey as logistics performance and the same problem. Electricity connection speed stays as the observable infrastructure measure in this dimension. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 90.87score 0-100
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.ELC.TIME.DFRN)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0.067index
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (EF.EFM.UNIV.XD)
- History
Large project delivery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no data% overrun
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: The single best measure of execution capability and there is no comparable international dataset. Assembling one is a defensible Envisioning project. Building mixes industrial output with state delivery capacity, and this indicator carries the delivery side: the other six indicators cannot see a national programme that was delivered. Documented deliveries are recorded in data/evidence and never scored, see D20.
Firm scale-up rate
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of firms
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD DynEmp
- History
- no data
Note: OECD business dynamics work covers members irregularly. Nothing comparable for India, Brazil or South Africa.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Output per workerWorld Bank (SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD), 2025
17,937 constant 2021 PPP $, rank 98 of 123. GDP per person employed, constant purchasing power parity.
A condition, not scored: output per worker is income per worker, the wealth the benchmark tests capability against, so it is published beside Building as context (D122).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Aeropuerto Internacional de Palmerola
Honduras's Infrastructure Secretariat concessioned the Palmerola international airport to Palmerola International Airport S.A., with a USD 87.1 million reference investment. Works began on 5 December 2016 and operations on 11 December 2021, about 60 months after works began, against a 61-month contracted works period (start of operation is not necessarily completion of works).
60 months, months from start of works (2016-12-05) to start of operation (2021-12-11), computed, 2021-12. 61 months, contracted works execution period, 2016. Superintendencia de Alianza Público Privada (SAPP), Honduras, Palmerola concession fact sheet, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Honduras's Infrastructure Secretariat let a 34-and-a-half-year concession with a fixed works period, had Congress approve it and a trust carry it, and left SAPP and a supervising consortium to hold the concessionaire to the schedule.
Limits: The schedule figure is ours, computed from two dates on the regulator's fact sheet: about 60 months against a 61-month contracted period. The sheet does not say whether the works period was amended, extended or suspended, or whether 'start of operation' means full completion. The only cost figure is a reference investment set at signature. No final cost, cost overrun or state contribution is published there, so this record shows schedule performance only and is silent on cost, which is half of what the indicator asks. The terminal was built at an existing air base with a runway, which makes it an easier build than a greenfield airport. SAPP is the concession's own regulator. Other SAPP sheets carry copy errors (the EEH sheet cites airport revenues), so treat field values with care. Passenger demand, the concession's financial health and whether the airport displaced Toncontín as intended are not shown.