Cuba

Strongest usable evidence: Adaptability, at 55.8. Agency needs more evidence: confidence is 0.00.

Raise, lowest first

No low-scoring dimension has usable evidence.

Measure before managing

Measure before managing
Dimension	Confidence	Score
Agency	0.00	no data
Shared Purpose	0.00	no data
Trust	0.07	no data
Coordination	0.10	no data
Learning	0.16	no data
Anticipation	0.22	no data
Experimentation	0.24	1.5
Building	0.29	20.8

These lists are the country's capability agenda, computed from the scores. Read the full agenda. It names comparable evidence from other countries and the 18 gaps in the registry.

Why this country is included: State-run system outside most international statistical programs, so coverage is thin by design.

Download this country as CSV

Anticipationnot scoredConfidence0.22very thinHow capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?

CubaCompare with

Read Cuba beside up to three other countries, down to the indicator behind every row.

Usable or good evidence
Thin evidence, hollow point. The dashes open further as confidence falls.
The point still sits at the score, because confidence never moves it.
Click any axis to see every country on that dimension.

A score from 0 to 100 is a position inside the frame that all the benchmark countries set: zero is the weakest on a dimension and 100 is the strongest. A score of 10 puts a country near the floor of that frame and does not mean 10 percent of a capability.

Cuba dimension summary

Adaptability	Adaptability How effectively can the system respond when circumstances change? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.46	3 of 6	1.00	no trend	no data	no estimate
Building	Building How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.29	2 of 6	0.92	-27.2(2)	no data	no estimate
Experimentation	Experimentation How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.24	3 of 9	0.75	-0.2(3)	no data	no estimate
Anticipation	Anticipation How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.22	1 of 4. Below the coverage floor: this model needs 2 observed rows before it publishes a score.	0.92	no trend	35.0	no estimate
Agency	Agency How able are individuals and organizations to turn an intention into action? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.00	0 of 5. Below the coverage floor: this model needs 2 observed rows before it publishes a score.	0.00	no trend	17.0	no estimate
Coordination	Coordination How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.10	1 of 5. Below the coverage floor: this model needs 2 observed rows before it publishes a score.	1.00	no trend	28.0	no estimate
Trust	Trust How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.07	1 of 7. Below the coverage floor: this model needs 2 observed rows before it publishes a score.	1.00	no trend	22.0	no estimate
Learning	Learning How effectively does the country acquire, distribute, and update knowledge? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.16	1 of 4. Below the coverage floor: this model needs 2 observed rows before it publishes a score.	0.75	no trend	46.0	no estimate
Shared Purpose	Shared Purpose To what extent can people imagine themselves as participants in a common project? Scores use one 0 to 100 scale for all countries. Each flag is a country, and the ring around it carries how well evidenced that score is. The band beside each score in the list shows its evidence level, and the last column shows the trend and the number of indicators behind it. Loading…	0.00	0 of 6. Below the coverage floor: this model needs 2 observed rows before it publishes a score.	0.00	no trend	32.0	no estimate

How to read this page

Each dimension has a score from 0 to 100. It shows where this country sits among all 125 countries in the comparison frame, not a percentage. Confidence sits beside the score. A dashed radar edge and hollow point mean the evidence is thin. The records below show each indicator, its raw value, year and source.

A panel estimate, when present, is a separate judgment about what the indicators miss. It does not change the score or confidence. The panel's provenance is shown beside the estimate.

direct capability measuredirect capability measure Measures the thing itself.
capability inputcapability input Measures something that supports the capability.
downstream outcomedownstream outcome Measures a result that usually follows from the capability.
perception proxyperception proxy Records what people or experts say, not what they did.

Confidence

very thin0.00 to 0.25
The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.
thin0.25 to 0.45
A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.
usable0.45 to 0.65
Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.
good0.65 and above
Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.

A row marked no dataset exists is a gap: the benchmark wants data that nobody publishes. A retired row has a source this project chose not to use. Both reduce confidence. The glossary defines each term, and the limits page lists where these numbers are known to be wrong about the world.

Anticipation

How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Scientific articles
Scientific and technical journal articles published, per million people.
Measured in articles per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 1216.63articles per million people
Year: 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Scientific articles
Scientific and technical journal articles published, per million people.
Measured in articles per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC)
History

Statistical performance

missing

Raw value: no dataindex 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IQ.SPI.OVRL)
History: no data

Note: A country that cannot see itself cannot anticipate. Closest available direct measure of national sensing capacity.

Government foresight capacity

no dataset exists

Raw value: no dataindex 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: none
History: no data

Note: No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this.

Long-horizon research commitments

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% of new grants
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: none
History: no data

Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the share of R&D spending classed as basic research, which is the make-up of a spending stock, the construct D142 retired business R&D share for. OECD MSTI publishes that share for its members only, and UNESCO UIS no longer serves R&D by type of research (construct audit, 2026-10-02). The behaviour behind it is a funder committing to a horizon: a grant awarded for five years or more is a decision to wait for a result. Untried: no memo has triaged a grant register. National funders publish award lists one by one with their own durations, and commercial grant aggregators fail the inspectability rule. Wireable on a grant-level register with award and end dates, on one definition of a competitive public grant, for half the frame or more.

Conditions, not scored

What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.

R&D expenditureWorld Bank (GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS), 2024
0.44 % of GDP, rank 60 of 118. Gross domestic expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: money committed to research is what a country spends, and spending it does not show the country reads the future well (D122).
Researchers in R&DWorld Bank (SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6), 2024
2,171 per million people, rank 39 of 114. Full-time-equivalent researchers per million people.
A condition, not scored: a standing stock of people who could investigate is what a country has, not a record of what they found (D122). Correlates with income but survives size normalization.
Secure internet serversWorld Bank (IT.NET.SECR.P6), 2024
193 per million people, rank 88 of 125. Servers using encryption in internet transactions, per million people.
A condition, not scored: a diffusion stock of digital adoption that money buys, not an act of anticipation (D122). Spans four orders of magnitude, so its rank is read on the published value and its correlations on the logged one.

Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works

35.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
I hold at 35: the civil defence system is a durable anticipatory institution, but the planning apparatus failed to foresee the currency unification shock and the grid collapse, and statistics are opaque. The panel agrees closely and no argument moves me.
35.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
I hold 35: hurricane early warning and civil defence are a real, distributed anticipatory system reaching down to the block level, and biotech was planned decades ahead. The failure to anticipate the energy and currency crises and the absence of a statistical performance score keep it low, and the panel is close.
37.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.25
Hurricane early warning is genuine conversion of scarce resources into prepared action, but the failure to anticipate the grid and currency crises counts against it. I move down slightly toward A and B.

Agency

How able are individuals and organizations to turn an intention into action?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

New business density

missing

Raw value: no dataper 1,000 aged 15-64
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS)
History: no data

Note: Directly observes intention turning into a registered entity. Undercounts informal activity, which matters for India and Brazil.

Time to start a business

missing

Raw value: no datadays
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IC.REG.DURS.MA.DY)
History: no data

Note: Activation energy, measured directly. Series ends with Doing Business in 2019, so it is stale everywhere.

Procedures to start a business

missing

Raw value: no datacount
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IC.REG.PROC.MA.NO)
History: no data

Note: Counts bureaucratic steps rather than money, so it does not smuggle income back in. Frozen at 2019 with Doing Business.

Adults doing digital tasks

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% of adults
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: ITU / UNESCO UIS (SDG 4.4.1, ICT skills by type)
History: no data

Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked whether adults can perform standard digital tasks, which reads a skill level, the kind of stock D122 moved out of the scores with internet users. It now counts the act: a person who did the task. It is not the internet users condition beside it, which counts access. Candidate: ITU ICT skills by type (SDG 4.4.1) through the UNESCO UIS API, probed 2026-10-02. Sent a message with an attached file reaches 33 of the 53 countries then in the frame, 25 at 2018 or later, with no United States, India or China and most of Africa and Central America missing; two other task items reach 31 and 16. The items are self-reported and the task list has changed between rounds. Wireable on one task observed for half the frame or more at 2018 or later.

Perceived control over life

missing

Raw value: no datamean 1-10
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Joint EVS/WVS (A173)
History: no data

Note: A perception: the publisher-weighted mean, on a 1 to 10 scale, of how much freedom of choice and control respondents feel they have over the way their life turns out, from the official Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2022 results table, release 5.0.0. It observes the felt capacity to act, not action. The table prints the mean to one decimal and no top-box share, so the row stores the mean and ties are common. Fieldwork years differ by up to six years: the 37 countries emitted were surveyed between 2017 (eight, the US among them) and 2023 (India), and every value is stamped with the release year 2022. Response style on 10-point scales differs across cultures, and a closed autocracy can read high: Vietnam and Nicaragua sit near the top of the frame. Countries with separate EVS and WVS samples (Germany, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands) are held, as for interpersonal trust. See D127 and A15.

Conditions, not scored

Individuals using the internetWorld Bank (IT.NET.USER.ZS), 2024
70.5 % of population, rank 85 of 125. Share of the population that used the internet in the last three months.
A condition, not scored: access to the basic tool of modern agency is what people have to act with, not a record of them acting (D122). Saturates near 95%, which compresses the top of the range.
Financial account ownershipWorld Bank (FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS)
No value for this country. Adults with an account at a bank or mobile money provider.
A condition, not scored: holding an account is the precondition for almost any economic action, not the action (D122). Global Findex, published every three years.
Credit to the private sectorWorld Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS)
No value for this country. Domestic credit provided to the private sector by financial corporations.
A condition, not scored: financial depth is a stock of money available to actors, not what they do with it (D122). High values can also signal a credit bubble, so more is not always better.

Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works

16.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
Panelist B is right that MSME registrations after 2021 are a real legal channel, so I move up one, but informal workarounds are individual effort compensating for institutional restriction, which I do not count as agency. Permits, currency controls and shortages keep it near the floor.
22.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Panelists A and C rightly stress that permits, currency controls and shortages make acting on intention very hard, so I come down from 25. I stay above 15 because the informal economy and the rapid registration of private MSMEs after 2021 show widespread initiative that formal rows would miss.
17.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.25
Licensing and shortages narrow the space to act, and I hold near A. B's informal economy is real ingenuity but is a workaround to a constraint, not ease of turning intention into action.

Coordination

How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

Government effectiveness

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GOV_WGI_GE.EST)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The WGI aggregate the opinions of experts and firms, and in this set the four WGI series correlate with each other between 0.93 and 0.98 while correlating with log GDP per capita at 0.91. That is one perception of national wealth counted in three dimensions. Cross-agency delivery records are the replacement and they are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.

Regulatory quality

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GOV_WGI_RQ.EST)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. Same measurement as government effectiveness, filed under a different name, correlating with it above 0.93. See D23 and A4.

Logistics performance

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataindex 1-5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The LPI is a survey of international freight forwarders, so it records how a country looks to global logistics firms. A small country with a small port scores low whatever its state can organise, which is artefact A9. Container throughput and border time are observable and stay. See D23.

Border compliance time to export

missing

Raw value: no datahours
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (TRD.ACRS.BRDR.EXPT.BRDR.COMP.HR.DB1619)
History: no data

Note: Observable throughput of several agencies acting together. Frozen at 2019 with Doing Business.

Budget execution fidelity

missing

Raw value: no datapercentage points from approved budget
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GF.XPD.BUDG.ZS)
History: no data

Note: Observable alignment between an approved public plan and what government spent. The API covers 113 of 125 countries, with a latest year between 2016 and 2024. Values above and below 100 both indicate deviation, so the transform measures absolute distance from the approved budget rather than rewarding overspending. See D55.

University-industry collaboration

no dataset exists

Raw value: no dataindex 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Global Innovation Index
History: no data

Note: GII carries it, but the underlying item is a WEF executive opinion survey whose microdata is not inspectable. Excluded on principle 4.

direct capability measureMeasures the thing itself.
Civil society strength
Autonomy, density and participatory reach of civil society organisations.
Measured in index 0-1; higher is better. Source: V-Dem (v2x_cspart), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 0.094index 0-1
Year: 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: direct capability measureMeasures the thing itself.
Civil society strength
Autonomy, density and participatory reach of civil society organisations.
Measured in index 0-1; higher is better. Source: V-Dem (v2x_cspart), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: V-Dem (v2x_cspart)
History: one year

Public-private collaboration

no dataset exists

Raw value: no dataindex 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: none
History: no data

Note: No comparable dataset. PPP investment databases measure infrastructure finance, not collaboration capacity.

Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works

28.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
I take panelist B's point that the question asks about independent actors, which pulls me slightly down to 28. Panelist C at 38 credits command mobilisation as coordination among independent actors, which it is not, though civil defence and health brigades show the state can align its own organisations.
27.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
The question asks about independent actors organising, and V-Dem civil society strength sits at the frame floor, so C's 38 rewards vertical command mobilisation. Panelist A's point that health and disaster campaigns are real coordination moves me up slightly, but not to the middle.
30.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Vertical mobilisation is real but the question is about independent actors, and civil society strength sits at 1.7. I move down from my 38 to meet A and B's point that command channels are not coordination among independent actors.

Trust

How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

Rule of law

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GOV_WGI_RL.EST)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite correlating with control of corruption above 0.95 and with log GDP per capita at 0.83. Court throughput and case clearance rates are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.

Control of corruption

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GOV_WGI_CC.EST)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite. It measures reputation for corruption, which is not the same thing as corruption, and it tracks income closely. Prosecution and audit records are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.

Time to enforce a contract

missing

Raw value: no datadays
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (ENF.CONT.DURS.DY)
History: no data

Note: Confidence in contracts, measured as court throughput rather than opinion. Frozen at 2019.

Bribery incidence

missing

Raw value: no data% of firms
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS)
History: no data

Note: Whether the rules hold where a firm meets the state as a stranger. Experience rather than reputation: the firm is asked whether it was itself asked, so it is not the perception composite D23 retired. World Bank Enterprise Surveys, which now run in high-income economies too. Respondent reticence is the known weakness: a firm may not report a request to a survey, so a low value can be a cautious answer. Held out as a check on income grounds under D60 and scored since D123.

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Government compliance with the courts
How often the government complies with important decisions of the ordinary and specialised courts that it disagrees with.
Measured in scale 0-4 (never to always); higher is better. Source: V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 0.553scale 0-4 (never to always)
Year: 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Government compliance with the courts
How often the government complies with important decisions of the ordinary and specialised courts that it disagrees with.
Measured in scale 0-4 (never to always); higher is better. Source: V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp)
History: one year

Intentional homicide rate

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataper 100,000 people
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (VC.IHR.PSRC.P5)
History: no data

Note: Added 2026-08-26 by D23 as the observable replacement for two retired WGI perception composites, and retired 2026-08-27 by D44 when the diagnostic built in D42 measured what it was doing. It raised this dimension's correlation with log GDP per capita by 0.288, from 0.096 to 0.385, the largest single wealth contribution anywhere in the model. It was added to fix wealth contamination and it was the wealth contamination. The dataset is sound and the objection is to what it measures here: homicide is driven heavily by organised crime, a society can be physically safe while trusting very little, and across this country set the variation it carries is mostly income. Behavioural trust measures remain a gap.

Generalised interpersonal trust

missing

Raw value: no data% agreeing
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Joint EVS/WVS (A165)
History: no data

Note: Share answering that most people can be trusted in the official Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2022 results table, release 5.0.0. The adapter uses the publisher-weighted country results, emits only countries with one survey row, and holds countries with separate EVS and WVS samples until the respondent-level weights can be pooled reproducibly. See D57 and D64.

Trust in public institutions

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% expressing confidence
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: OECD Trust Survey / WVS
History: no data

Note: The OECD survey covers members only. Mixing it with WVS items for India and South Africa would break comparability. The Joint EVS/WVS confidence battery (E069) reaches 37 countries from one release, and confidence in the courts (E069_17) is published beside Trust as a check under this id rather than scored: every item of the battery tested (courts, civil service, police, parliament and government) reads higher in the closed and electoral autocracies of the frame than in its democracies, which is deference as much as confidence (A13). The gap stays open for a measure that does not reward a court that cannot rule against the state. See D132.

Cooperation beyond the in-group

missing

Raw value: no data% expressing trust
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Joint EVS/WVS (G007_34_B)
History: no data

Note: The distinction that makes this dimension worth measuring: whether trust reaches a person with no tie to the respondent. Generalised trust asks about "most people", which a respondent can fill with their own circle; this item names the stranger. China is the clearest case, high on most people and low on a person met for the first time. The value is the publisher-weighted share answering trust completely plus the share answering trust somewhat, the one sum of two printed columns the adapter stores, exact to about 0.1, over all respondents including don't know and no answer. EVS and WVS ask the same question on the same four-point scale; where one country has both samples, the WVS share is a median 2.2 points higher. Trust in people of another nationality (G007_36_B), which the row once also named, is left out because it reads attitudes to foreigners as much as trust. Fieldwork runs from 2017 to 2023 and every value carries the release year 2022. Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands are held, as for interpersonal trust. See D140.

Court case clearance rate

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% of incoming cases
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: CEPEJ / OECD / national court statistics
History: no data

Note: Whether a court finishes what it starts, counted from case records rather than asked in a survey. D23 named it as the observable replacement for the two retired WGI composites and it has stayed unfilled since. CEPEJ publishes it for Council of Europe members and OECD for its own members, so no single publisher reaches this country set, and a harmonised series needs the project second source adapter. See D57.

Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works

22.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
I hold at 22: courts subordinate to the party-state cannot underwrite cooperation between strangers. Panelist B's mutual-aid networks are real but they are personal networks substituting for institutions, which is the opposite of what the question asks.
26.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.25
Courts subordinate to the party-state and surveillance limit trust beyond close networks, which the others stress and I accept, so I come down from 30. Informal mutual aid and remittance networks across households still show cooperation beyond kin that keeps me above 18.
20.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Courts comply with the state at 13 of 100 and no survey anchors cooperation beyond kin. I hold near the low end; B's mutual aid is informal coping that scarcity forces, which is not evidence of broad trust.

Learning

How effectively does the country acquire, distribute, and update knowledge?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

Human Capital Index

missing

Raw value: no dataindex 0-1
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (HD.HCI.OVRL)
History: no data

Note: Uses learning-adjusted years of schooling, which is why it is preferred over raw attainment. Last full round is 2020.

Firms offering formal training

missing

Raw value: no data% of firms
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IC.FRM.TRNG.ZS)
History: no data

Note: Enterprise Surveys reach middle-income countries and skip most high-income ones, so coverage here is deliberately uneven and the confidence score should show it.

Adult learning participation

no dataset exists, 1 record

Raw value: no data% of adults
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Eurostat / OECD PIAAC
History: no data

Note: The best available measure of continuous learning capacity, and it exists only for European and OECD members.

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Research citation impact
Share of a country's articles and reviews that are in the top 10% most cited for their subfield and year, as a ratio to the same share across all country-affiliated works.
Measured in ratio to world average; higher is better. Source: OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 0.2ratio to world average
Year: 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Research citation impact
Share of a country's articles and reviews that are in the top 10% most cited for their subfield and year, as a ratio to the same share across all country-affiliated works.
Measured in ratio to world average; higher is better. Source: OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent)
History: one year

Conditions, not scored

Tertiary enrolmentWorld Bank (SE.TER.ENRR), 2024
43.1 % gross, rank 73 of 124. Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education.
A condition, not scored: enrolment counts people in formal education and records nothing learned (D122).
Public education expenditureWorld Bank (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS), 2022
8.4 % of GDP, rank 2 of 125. Government expenditure on education as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: public spending on education is a pure input, and learning is what the dimension asks about (D122).
Vocational share of secondaryWorld Bank (SE.SEC.ENRL.VO.ZS), 2019
27.4 % of secondary, rank 25 of 125. Vocational pupils as a share of total secondary enrolment.
A condition, not scored: the share of secondary pupils on a vocational track describes how a school system is built, not what anyone learns in it, and higher is not unambiguously better (D141). It marks a route into skilled work that does not run through university. Learning reads research citation impact, firm training and the human capital index instead.

Evidence for missing indicators

Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.

Cubalinked to Adult learning participationstarted 1961delivered and closed
Campaña Nacional de Alfabetización
In 1961 Cuba's national literacy campaign mobilized volunteer teachers, student brigades and worker brigades to teach adults to read across the country. By 30 August 1961, 593,651 people were learning and 64,253 had already been made literate, and the government reported illiteracy reduced to 3.92 percent of the population when the campaign closed.
593,651 people, people enrolled and learning in the literacy campaign, reported at the iv national literacy meeting, 1961-08-30. 3.92 % of population, illiteracy rate reported after the campaign, share of total population, 1961. Ministerio de Educación de la República de Cuba, '¿Cómo surgieron las Brigadas de Alfabetización Patria o Muerte?', retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: The revolutionary government closed secondary schools for part of 1961 and sent students, teachers and worker brigades to live with illiterate households, after a door-to-door census of illiterates run through mass organizations. It then built follow-on worker-peasant education so the new readers kept studying.
Limits: Both numbers come from commemorative articles on Cuban ministry websites, not from a statistical release. The MINED article says it was taken from the Communist Party's website, and both rest on the campaign's own 1961 records, which nobody independently audited. The 593,651 is a mid-campaign count from August 1961, not the final number taught, and the source gives no denominator of adults. A participation share therefore cannot be computed, and the literacy standard reached was basic, a letter written at the end of the course. The 3.92 percent is a government figure against the total population of the time, while the 23.5 percent baseline the MINED article cites is from the 1953 census, eight years earlier, so the two are not a like-for-like comparison. The campaign was a one-year mobilization, not a standing system, and the follow-on adult schooling it created (Superación Obrera y Campesina) is not measured here. The case is 65 years old and says nothing about adult learning participation in Cuba today.

Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works

47.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
Panelists B and C rightly weigh skilled emigration since 2021 and restricted access to information, which erode the updating side of learning, so I come down from 50 to 47. The school and medical training systems remain durable institutions the indicator rows cannot see.
46.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.35
Universal schooling and a large medical training system are real knowledge distribution, while citation impact is near zero and skilled emigration drains the stock. Informal channels like El Paquete partly offset censorship of updates, so I hold mid-range close to the panel.
46.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Schooling and medical training far above income prediction are conversion of resources into knowledge, but citation impact is zero, access is restricted and emigration drains the stock. I stay mid-range, between A and B.

Experimentation

How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved?

-0.2 over 10 years, from 1.7 in 2016 to 1.5 on 3 indicators seen in both years.

-0.4 over 20 years, from 1.9 in 2006 to 1.5 on 3 indicators seen in both years.

-3.2 over 30 years, from 4.0 in 1996 to 0.8 on 2 indicators seen in both years.

Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Resident patent applications
Patent applications filed by residents, per million people.
Measured in per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 21per million people
Year: 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Resident patent applications
Patent applications filed by residents, per million people.
Measured in per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD)
History

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Resident trademark applications
Direct trademark applications by residents, per million people.
Measured in per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 1840per million people
Year: 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Resident trademark applications
Direct trademark applications by residents, per million people.
Measured in per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT)
History

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Resident industrial design applications
Industrial design applications filed by residents at their national office, per million people.
Measured in per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 14per million people
Year: 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Resident industrial design applications
Industrial design applications filed by residents at their national office, per million people.
Measured in per million people; higher is better. Source: World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT)
History

New public software repositories

missing

Raw value: no dataper million people
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: GitHub Innovation Graph (data/repositories.csv)
History: no data

Note: A public repository is a software project someone started. It costs nothing, needs no fee or lawyer, and the platform keeps it whether or not it is abandoned, so new repositories per head are the closest open count of many cheap attempts. The value is the change in GitHub's count of public repositories located in the country from the first quarter of one year to the first quarter of the next (2025 to 2026), net of deletions and relocations, read from the GitHub Innovation Graph at a pinned commit. Only public work on one platform is visible: GitLab, Bitbucket, Gitee and private repositories are not. Location is the most common IP location of a repository's members, so VPN users are misplaced and Singapore reads high partly as a regional hub. Coursework and tutorials create repositories too. A country whose count grows by less than a quarter of the median growth is held by an access gate and never scored at zero: in the 2026 file that is China, where the count fell, and Cuba. The publisher is a platform reporting on itself, and no source tier fits it. CC0. See D145.

Venture deals

no dataset exists

Raw value: no dataper million people
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: OECD / national VC associations
History: no data

Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The id keeps its first name so evidence records, links and published files still resolve. The row asked for venture capital deployed as a share of GDP, a level of financial depth of the kind private credit is (D122). A count of first rounds counts attempts started with outside risk money, which is what this capability asks about, and a large round counts once. Candidates, none wireable: the OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Financing scoreboard carried venture capital for 6 of the 16 countries the frame held on 2026-08-26, as amounts in national currency, latest year 2022, with Brazil, India, South Africa and Singapore absent (D21); national venture capital associations publish counts on their own definitions; commercial deal databases cover the world and are not inspectable (D10). Wireable on an inspectable deal count with one definition of a first round for half the frame or more. Read A1 before treating this dimension as measured.

Early-stage entrepreneurial activity

missing

Raw value: no data% aged 18-64
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, TEA rate)
History: no data

Note: From the GEM Adult Population Survey, entered by hand because GEM has no open API. TEA counts every new business, so necessity self-employment scores the same as a funded startup, which is why Chile and Argentina sit above the United States here. Read it as how many people are trying, not as how much value the attempts create. GEM does not run every economy every year: Singapore last took part in 2014 and the recency term marks that value down hard.

Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure

missing

Raw value: no data% not deterred
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, fear of failure rate)
History: no data

Note: Stored as 100 minus the published GEM fear of failure rate, so the direction matches the rest of the registry. GEM measures that rate among adults who already see good opportunities, not among all adults, so the denominator differs from the label. Attitudinal: bankruptcy law and time to discharge would be the observable substitute and are still worth wiring beside it.

Firms through regulatory sandboxes

no dataset exists

Raw value: no datafirms per million people
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: national regulators
History: no data

Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the number and breadth of live sandboxes, which is a policy stock: a regime can exist with nobody in it. It now counts what passes through: firms a regulator let test under relaxed rules, and firms that came out, authorised, withdrawn or failed. Regulators publish cohort lists and exit reports one by one. The evidence corpus holds 22 records against this row, most of them counts of firms admitted or exited, each on the definition and window of its own regulator, and no register assembles them on one definition (O1 triage sweep, 2026-10-01). A realistic candidate for Envisioning to build from those lists. Wireable on a register that counts admissions and completions on one definition for half the frame or more.

University spinouts

no dataset exists

Raw value: no dataper million people
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: national TTO associations
History: no data

Note: Reported nationally with incompatible definitions of what counts as a spinout.

Business share of R&D

retired, see notes

Raw value: no data% of R&D
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: OECD MSTI / RICYT
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-10-02. The only working source, OECD MSTI joined with RICYT for Latin America, covers 34 of the 53 countries then in the frame, but the row reads the make-up of a spending stock: who performs the R&D a country pays for. R&D spending itself is a condition since D122, and the share is high both where business research is large (Israel) and where total research is tiny and one firm dominates it (Thailand). State enterprises count as business, so China and Vietnam read their ownership model. UIS stopped publishing the series in 2023. Firms trying new things are read through patents, trademarks, designs and entrepreneurship instead. See D142.

Adaptability

How effectively can the system respond when circumstances change?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Unemployment rate
Unemployed as a share of the labour force, modelled ILO estimate.
Measured in % of labour force; lower is better. Source: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 1.746% of labour force
Year: 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Unemployment rate
Unemployed as a share of the labour force, modelled ILO estimate.
Measured in % of labour force; lower is better. Source: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS)
History

Long-term unemployment share

set aside, older than 15 years

Raw value: no data% of unemployed
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: ILOSTAT (DF_UNE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_DUR_NB)
History: one year

The latest value, 15.6 % of unemployed in 2010, is more than 15 years old. It does not count toward the score, the scale or the coverage, and it stays in the history.

Note: Derived from ILOSTAT unemployment by duration: 12 months or more over the unemployed whose duration is stated, both sexes, age 15 and over, a labour force survey preferred where ILOSTAT holds more than one. Read it beside the unemployment rate, because a high share means two different things: slow reallocation, where people who lose work stay out of it (South Africa, Kenya, Nigeria), or a small residual pool in a tight market, where the few left unemployed are the hardest to place (Switzerland, Japan). Some national questionnaires cannot record a long search, so the adapter runs a plausibility gate on every country: it drops a year under 3%, every year of a survey whose median is under 3%, a one- or two-year spike of more than 15 points that the series returns from, and a latest year that jumps more than 15 points with no later year to confirm it, then emits the latest year that survives. Every dropped value is logged in the source memo. See D120.

direct capability measureMeasures the thing itself.
Export diversification
Concentration of the merchandise export basket across products: the normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index over SITC Rev.3 3-digit lines, 0 when exports are spread evenly and 1 when one product is everything.
Measured in index 0-1, lower = more diversified; lower is better. Source: UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 0.3index 0-1, lower = more diversified
Year: 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: direct capability measureMeasures the thing itself.
Export diversification
Concentration of the merchandise export basket across products: the normalised Herfindahl-Hirschman index over SITC Rev.3 3-digit lines, 0 when exports are spread evenly and 1 when one product is everything.
Measured in index 0-1, lower = more diversified; lower is better. Source: UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices)
History: one year

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
New export products
Share of the products a country did not export competitively in 2009-2011 that it exported competitively in 2022-2024.
Measured in % of products not exported competitively at the start; higher is better. Source: Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ)), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 0.35% of products not exported competitively at the start
Year: 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
New export products
Share of the products a country did not export competitively in 2009-2011 that it exported competitively in 2022-2024.
Measured in % of products not exported competitively at the start; higher is better. Source: Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ)), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ))
History: one year

Disaster preparedness and recovery

no dataset exists, 2 records

Raw value: no dataindex 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: INFORM / UNDRR
History: no data

Note: No source observes a country preparing for or recovering from a real shock. INFORM publishes its lack of coping capacity apart from hazard and exposure, but that dimension averages government self-assessments and governance perception indices with stocks such as roads, phones and physicians, which is the perception layer D23 retired plus conditions money buys (D122). Sendai and WHO reporting are governments grading themselves. A warning-reach survey item is a check candidate. See the disaster preparedness memo.

Institutional responsiveness

no dataset exists, 1 record

Raw value: no dataindex 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: none
History: no data

Note: No dataset exists. Measurable in principle from legislative and regulatory timestamps, which no one has assembled comparably.

Conditions, not scored

Labour force participationWorld Bank (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), 2025
63.8 % aged 15+, rank 92 of 125. Share of the working-age population in the labour force.
A condition, not scored: how much of the population is in the labor force at all is what a country has to reallocate, a level set by norms, schooling and age, not a record of it reallocating (D141). Participation norms confound it, especially for India. Adaptability reads reallocation through long-term unemployment and export diversification instead.
Fixed broadband subscriptionsWorld Bank (IT.NET.BBND.P2), 2024
3.1 per 100 people, rank 94 of 125. Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people.
A condition, not scored: installed infrastructure is what a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D122). Penalizes mobile-first countries such as India and South Africa.
Electricity transmission lossesWorld Bank (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), 2023
18.7 % of output, rank 101 of 117. Power lost in transmission and distribution, including unbilled use.
A condition, not scored: the state of the grid, and whether its operator can bill what it delivers, is infrastructure a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D141). Read it beside broadband, the other installed network beside Adaptability.
Informal employmentILOSTAT (DF_SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT)
No value for this country. Informal employment as a share of total employment, SDG indicator 8.3.1.
A condition, not scored: how much work carries no contract, registration or social protection describes the labor market a country reallocates through, not it reallocating (D150). Read it beside the unemployment rate: where most work is informal, a person who loses a job takes any work within weeks, so a low rate is not a fluid market. Its direction for Adaptability cannot be defended, since informal work is both the slack that absorbs a shock and the precarity that keeps a worker from moving up, so the rank orders values and is not a verdict. Comparability is weak: the European values come from an income survey (EU-SILC) with a proxy definition, and the rest from labor force or household surveys processed by the ILO. ILOSTAT has no value for the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, China, the Philippines or Cuba, and some values are old (Haiti and Nicaragua 2012).

Evidence for missing indicators

Cubalinked to Disaster preparedness and recoverystarted 2021delivered and closed
National COVID-19 vaccination campaign
Cuba's national COVID-19 vaccination campaign had given at least one vaccine dose to 94% of the country's population by 31 December 2021, according to the Pan American Health Organization.
94 % of population, population receiving at least one covid-19 vaccine dose, 2021-12-31. Pan American Health Organization, Health in the Americas country profile: Cuba, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Cuba treated COVID vaccination as a national public-health delivery operation, using its existing primary-care and community health network to move doses from central procurement and production into local clinics. The campaign's reach depended on routine registration and trusted local health workers rather than a stand-alone emergency site.
Limits: The PAHO coverage figure shows reach of at least one dose, not completion of a primary series, booster uptake, protection against infection, mortality avoided, equity across provinces or the campaign's logistical cost. It is based on reported national data, and the profile does not independently audit Cuba's dose records or distinguish domestically produced vaccines from other supplies.
Cubalinked to Disaster preparedness and recoverystarted 1997still operating
Civil Defence hurricane evacuation system
Cuba's Civil Defence system and the provincial and municipal Defence Councils it activates evacuated and protected more than 735,000 people across eastern Cuba ahead of Hurricane Melissa, which struck as a Category 3 storm on 29 October 2025, according to UN OCHA.
735,000 people (more than), people evacuated and protected before hurricane melissa's landfall, 2025-10-29. 53,000 people, people still evacuated about two weeks after landfall, 2025-11-14. UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Six things to know about Hurricane Melissa's impact on Cuba, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Cuba's Civil Defence, under the armed forces ministry, activates provincial and municipal Defence Councils on a meteorological alert, and they move residents of low-lying and fragile housing to shelters or relatives' homes and secure crops and assets before landfall. The phased alert system set in law lets local authorities order evacuation without waiting for national instruction.
Limits: The 735,000 figure is the Cuban authorities' count relayed by OCHA, not independently verified, and it counts people moved, not lives saved: no official source located today states the death toll avoided, and the claim does not assert one.The system is military-led and rests on compulsory mobilisation through a one-party state's local structures, which may not transfer. Preparation is the strong half; recovery is weak: two weeks after landfall 53,000 people remained evacuated, nearly 150,000 homes were affected and nearly 60 per cent of Santiago de Cuba province had no electricity. The started year is the decree that set the current system of measures; the Civil Defence itself dates from the 1960s, which no official page opened today states with a year. The page is a UN news story, not a dataset, and a single event is one observation.
Cubalinked to Institutional responsivenessstarted 2021operating below its peak
Tarea Ordenamiento's single exchange rate, and its fragmentation
On 1 January 2021 Cuba's government replaced its dual-currency system with a single exchange rate of 24 pesos per dollar for the whole economy. By 1 October 2026 the Central Bank of Cuba published three official dollar rates, of 24, 120 and 689 pesos.
689 CUP per USD, central bank of cuba floating-segment (segment iii) usd rate, 2026-10-01. 24 CUP per USD, single exchange rate set at monetary unification, 2021-01-01. Banco Central de Cuba, exchange-rate API (tasas de cambio activas), retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: The Council of State unified the currency by decree on a fixed date at a fixed rate. When reserves and supply did not support 24 pesos per dollar, the Central Bank layered new official segments, a 120 rate for individuals and then a daily floating rate for exporters, on top of the old rate rather than moving it.
Limits: The API fields are named tasaOficial, tasaPublica and tasaEspecial. We map them to Segments I, II and III because the bank's rate page shows the same 689.00 figure under its three-segment tabs. The API does not state that mapping, so it is our reading. The API history starts in December 2025, at 410 for the floating segment, so the official series does not document when the single rate first split. A 120-peso rate for individuals existed by 2025, but this record cannot date it from an official source. The unification's other half, withdrawing the convertible peso (CUC), stands and is not counted as lost. A hostile reviewer would say the record shows a monetary outcome, not the speed of rule-making. The case for filing it here is that the state held a fixed rate while the informal market moved away from it, then added segments instead of adjusting the one rate. The record does not show the informal rate, inflation or shortages. The Gaceta's website lists Decreto-Ley 17/2020 as 'Derogada' without saying what replaced it. The MEP page reprints a state-media article and sometimes fails to load.

Building

How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems?

-27.2 over 10 years, from 48.0 in 2016 to 20.8 on 2 indicators seen in both years.

Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Manufacturing value added
Manufacturing value added as a share of GDP.
Measured in % of GDP; higher is better. Source: World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 10.677% of GDP
Year: 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
Manufacturing value added
Manufacturing value added as a share of GDP.
Measured in % of GDP; higher is better. Source: World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS)
History

downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
High-technology exports
High-technology exports as a share of manufactured exports.
Measured in % of manufactured exports; higher is better. Source: World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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observed

Raw value: 7.876% of manufactured exports
Year: 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
Normalized: downstream outcomeMeasures a result that usually follows from the capability.
High-technology exports
High-technology exports as a share of manufactured exports.
Measured in % of manufactured exports; higher is better. Source: World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS), also in the indicator registry. Each flag is a country at its normalized position from 0 to 100, where higher always means better. The bar in the list below shows the same position.
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Source: World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS)
History

Logistics infrastructure quality

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataindex 1-5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (LP.LPI.INFR.XQ)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. An LPI sub-index, so the same freight-forwarder survey as logistics performance and the same problem. Electricity connection speed stays as the observable infrastructure measure in this dimension. See D23.

Electricity connection speed

missing

Raw value: no datascore 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (IC.ELC.TIME.DFRN)
History: no data

Note: Small-scale infrastructure delivery, measured end to end. The World Bank publishes only the rescaled score, not the raw days. Frozen at 2019.

Economic fitness

missing

Raw value: no dataindex
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (EF.EFM.UNIV.XD)
History: no data

Note: World Bank Economic Fitness, a diversity-and-ubiquity measure of the export basket built on the same idea as economic complexity. Method is published, inputs are UN Comtrade.

Large project delivery

no dataset exists, 1 record

Raw value: no data% overrun
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: none
History: no data

Note: The single best measure of execution capability and there is no comparable international dataset. Assembling one is a defensible Envisioning project. Building mixes industrial output with state delivery capacity, and this indicator carries the delivery side: the other six indicators cannot see a national programme that was delivered. Documented deliveries are recorded in data/evidence and never scored, see D20.

Firm scale-up rate

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% of firms
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: OECD DynEmp
History: no data

Note: OECD business dynamics work covers members irregularly. Nothing comparable for India, Brazil or South Africa.

Conditions, not scored

Output per workerWorld Bank (SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD)
No value for this country. GDP per person employed, constant purchasing power parity.
A condition, not scored: output per worker is income per worker, the wealth the benchmark tests capability against, so it is published beside Building as context (D122).

Evidence for missing indicators

Cubalinked to Large project deliverystarted 2019operating below its peak
Programa Nacional de la Vivienda, and its collapse
Cuba's national housing programme, run by the Ministry of Construction under the housing policy presented in 2018 to close a deficit of 929,695 homes in ten years, completed 20,232 homes in 2022 and 5,493 in 2025, of which the state built 1,791.
5,493 homes, homes completed in the year, state and self-build, 2025. 20,232 homes, homes completed in 2022, 2022. Oficina Nacional de Estadística e Información (ONEI), Construcción en Cuba. Indicadores seleccionados, enero-diciembre 2025, tables 5 and 6 (source SIEC, Ministerio de la Construcción), archived copy, retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: The Ministry of Construction sets an annual national housing plan, builds part of it through state enterprises and counts the rest through subsidised self-build by households, with municipal governments responsible for local materials.
Limits: The count is of homes finished, not of the housing deficit, quality, cost or who received them. Two thirds of the 2025 total (3,702 of 5,493) is self-build by households ('población', 'esfuerzo propio'), which the programme subsidises and counts toward its plan but does not build, and the state-built part fell from 2,756 in 2024 to 1,791. The 2022 figure is from the 2024 edition of the same ONEI publication (https://web.archive.org/web/20260621201114/https://www.onei.gob.cu/sites/default/files/publicaciones/2025-05/construccion-en-cuba-indicadores-seleccionados-2024_0.pdf, table 5), which gives 32,874 for 2020, 18,645 for 2021, 20,232 for 2022, 16,065 for 2023 and 7,427 for 2024. In the 2025 edition's table 5, headed 2021 to 2025, the province rows sum to 18,645, 20,232, 16,065, 7,427 and 5,493, but the national total row is shifted one year back in its first three columns (32,874, 18,645, 20,232) and drops 16,065, so the national row is wrong there and the provinces are right; Granma (27 February 2024) independently reports 16,065 homes for 2023, 65 percent of the plan, from the ministry's annual review. 2022 is not the peak: 2020 was higher, and the series before 2020 is not in these editions. The 2018 policy and the 929,695 deficit are from Cubadebate's report of the policy's presentation (21 November 2018), state media rather than a statistical release, and the started year is the first full year under that policy. The collapse coincides with the 2021 to 2025 economic crisis, the loss of construction materials (ONEI reports corrugated steel bar output down 80 percent in 2025) and 40,191 stalled self-build homes, so the record documents a delivery capacity that ran backwards without separating the programme's management from the economy around it. onei.gob.cu refused connections on 2 October 2026, so both editions are Internet Archive copies; the PDF text layer uses a shifted font encoding and the tables were read after decoding it.

Shared Purpose

To what extent can people imagine themselves as participants in a common project?

No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.

Voice and accountability

retired, see notes

Raw value: no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GOV_WGI_VA.EST)
History: no data

Note: Retired 2026-08-26. Artefact A5: it measures the democratic channel while Shared Purpose asks whether people can see themselves in a common project. Singapore scored 20.9 while being one of the most effective collective actors in the set. Volunteering and civic participation are the observable replacements and are declared gaps; voter turnout is published beside Shared Purpose as a check, because it reads the same democratic channel and compulsory voting (D129). See D23 and A5.

Tax revenue

missing

Raw value: no data% of GDP
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS)
History: no data

Note: Revealed willingness to fund public goods, confounded by federal structure and by resource revenue. Treat with suspicion.

Income inequality

missing

Raw value: no dataGini 0-100
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: World Bank (SI.POV.GINI)
History: no data

Note: Included as a structural constraint on seeing yourself in a common project, not as a value judgement. Contested and worth challenging.

Sense of national belonging

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% expressing belonging
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Joint EVS/WVS (G006)
History: no data

Note: A declared gap again since 2026-10-02 (D151, which supersedes the retirement in D143). The project still wants to know whether people count themselves members of the community whose common project this capability asks about, so the row stays even though no series can fill it. The only cross-national item aimed at it, national pride (G006) in the Joint EVS/WVS, is not wired: pride is not belonging, and it fails the regime test of artefact A13, with electoral autocracies at 75 percent very proud against 47 in liberal democracies. ISSP 2023 asks about closeness to the country in 16 countries. Wireable on an item that reads the same in every regime class, or on a behaviour of belonging, for half the frame or more. High national pride must never be read as the capacity for collective action.

Volunteering

no dataset exists

Raw value: no data% of adults
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Gallup World Poll / CAF
History: no data

Note: CAF publishes country figures but the underlying Gallup microdata is proprietary, so it fails the inspectability rule.

Political polarisation

no dataset exists

Raw value: no dataindex 0-4
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: V-Dem
History: no data

Note: V-Dem political polarization (v2cacamps) is published beside this dimension as a behavioral check and is not scored, because a regime with no organized opposition reads as calm (D121, A13). The gap stays open for a measure that can tell calm between competing camps from calm where no camp may compete. Pluralism is the target, so only hostile polarization should count against a country.

Civic participation

missing

Raw value: no data% mentioning
Year: no data
Normalized: no data
Source: Joint EVS/WVS (A080_01)
History: no data

Note: A reported behaviour: the publisher-weighted share of respondents mentioning membership of a humanitarian or charitable organisation, the membership item closest to acting for strangers, in the official Joint EVS/WVS 2017-2022 results table, release 5.0.0. Religious membership is left out because it reads religiosity, and a count of any membership is not published in the aggregate table. The two programmes ask differently: EVS shows a list and asks which the respondent belongs to, WVS reads each type aloud and asks about active or inactive membership, and the joint file counts both kinds of WVS member as mentioned. Where one country has both samples, the WVS share is higher in eight of ten, so part of the spread is question format. Membership is not activity. China reads 2.7% and Vietnam 9.4%, so state mass organisations do not inflate this item. Fieldwork runs from 2017 to 2023 and every value carries the release year 2022. Germany, the United Kingdom and the Netherlands are held, as for interpersonal trust. See D128 and A15.

Behavioral check, not scored

Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.

Political polarizationV-Dem (v2cacamps_osp), 2025
1.75 index 0-4, lower is better. Whether supporters of opposing political camps generally meet in a friendly or a hostile manner, rated by V-Dem country experts from 0, friendly, to 4, hostile.
The question counts hostility and leaves disagreement alone, which is what pluralism asks for. It is not scored because a low reading has two causes the number cannot tell apart. Where camps compete openly, a calm reading means people who disagree still meet as fellow citizens. Where no opposition may organize, it means there is no camp left to be hostile to. In 2025 the five closed autocracies in the frame average 2.18 and the liberal democracies 1.67, while electoral democracies and electoral autocracies sit near 2.8 and 3.3. Scored, the reading would have lifted the United Arab Emirates about 11 points on this capability for a uniformity the benchmark does not count as shared purpose. Income is not why it is left out: richer countries read only somewhat calmer, at about -0.41 against log GDP per capita.
Voter turnoutV-Dem (v2eltrnout), 2023
75.87 % of registered voters, higher is better. Share of registered voters who cast a vote in the latest national election up to 2025, according to official results, as coded by V-Dem from IDEA, IPU and IFES sources. Where executive and legislative elections fall on the same day, the executive turnout is coded.
Turnout is the one act in which a whole population takes part in a common decision, so it is the closest behavioral reading of shared purpose the benchmark has. It is not scored for three reasons the number cannot separate. It reads the democratic channel, which is why voice and accountability was retired from this capability (A5): a country with no competitive elections cannot score well for reasons unrelated to whether its people see themselves in a common project. Compulsory voting turns it into a reading of the law: Brazil enforces it, and the eight countries that enforce sanctions average 83 percent against 65 where voting is voluntary. And closed and electoral autocracies manage it: Vietnam reads 95.6, Rwanda 98.2 and Singapore 92.8, which is mobilization, not participation (A13). The year shown is the latest national election, because elections are coded only in the year they happen.

Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works

30.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
I hold at 30: participation channelled through mass organisations under one party is mobilisation, not pluralism, and the 2021 protests and record emigration show withdrawal from the common project. Panelists B and C credit the historical project more than its present institutional reach supports.
32.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.30
Panelist A is right that near-universal mass organisation membership is mobilisation under one party rather than pluralism, so I come down slightly. Local informal solidarity and the historical literacy and health campaigns remain real, but 2021 protests and record emigration show withdrawal.
32.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.25
Enforced uniformity is not productive pluralism, and the 2021 protests and emigration indicate withdrawal. Past mass campaigns show collective action capacity, so not at the floor.

🇨🇺Cuba

Statistical performance

Government foresight capacity

Long-horizon research commitments

New business density

Time to start a business

Procedures to start a business

Adults doing digital tasks

Perceived control over life

Government effectiveness

Regulatory quality

Logistics performance

Border compliance time to export

Budget execution fidelity

University-industry collaboration

Public-private collaboration

Rule of law

Control of corruption

Time to enforce a contract

Bribery incidence

Intentional homicide rate

Generalised interpersonal trust

Trust in public institutions

Cooperation beyond the in-group

Court case clearance rate

Human Capital Index

Firms offering formal training

Adult learning participation

New public software repositories

Venture deals

Early-stage entrepreneurial activity

Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure

Firms through regulatory sandboxes

University spinouts

Business share of R&D

Long-term unemployment share

Disaster preparedness and recovery

Institutional responsiveness

Logistics infrastructure quality

Electricity connection speed

Economic fitness

Large project delivery

Firm scale-up rate

Voice and accountability

Tax revenue

Income inequality

Sense of national belonging

Volunteering

Political polarisation

Civic participation

Cuba