downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 21243.62articles per million people
- Year
- 2023. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.JRN.ARTC.SC)
- History
Sweden
Strongest usable evidence: Trust, at 89.4. Raise Building first, at 45.1. Coordination needs more evidence: confidence is 0.23.
Raise, lowest first
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Building | 0.57 | 45.1 |
Measure before managing
| Dimension | Confidence | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Coordination | 0.23 | 97.4 |
| Experimentation | 0.33 | 46.4 |
| Shared Purpose | 0.42 | 73.3 |
These lists are the country's capability agenda, computed from the scores. Read the full agenda. It names comparable evidence from other countries and the 18 gaps in the registry.
Why this country is included: High-trust Nordic state with an unusual mix of large firms and startups.
Anticipation87.3Confidence0.46usableHow capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
Sweden
Read Sweden beside up to three other countries, down to the indicator behind every row.
- Usable or good evidence
- Thin evidence, hollow point. The dashes open further as confidence falls.
- The point still sits at the score, because confidence never moves it.
- Click any axis to see every country on that dimension.
A score from 0 to 100 is a position inside the frame that all the benchmark countries set: zero is the weakest on a dimension and 100 is the strongest. A score of 10 puts a country near the floor of that frame and does not mean 10 percent of a capability.
| Coordination | 0.23 | 2 of 5 | 0.79 | no trend | 85.0 | -12.4 | |
| Trust | 0.50 | 5 of 7 | 0.85 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Anticipation | 0.46 | 2 of 4 | 0.96 | +2.2(2) | 84.0 | -3.3 | |
| Learning | 0.55 | 3 of 4 | 0.81 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Shared Purpose | 0.42 | 3 of 6 | 0.92 | -1.3(2) | 71.0 | -2.3 | |
| Agency | 0.56 | 4 of 5 | 0.75 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Adaptability | 0.62 | 4 of 6 | 1.00 | no trend | no data | no estimate | |
| Experimentation | 0.33 | 4 of 9 | 0.81 | -7.2(3) | no data | no estimate | |
| Building | 0.57 | 4 of 6 | 0.90 | -2.6(3) | no data | no estimate |
How to read this page
Each dimension has a score from 0 to 100. It shows where this country sits among all 125 countries in the comparison frame, not a percentage. Confidence sits beside the score. A dashed radar edge and hollow point mean the evidence is thin. The records below show each indicator, its raw value, year and source.
A panel estimate, when present, is a separate judgment about what the indicators miss. It does not change the score or confidence. The panel's provenance is shown beside the estimate.
- direct capability measuredirect capability measure Measures the thing itself.
- capability inputcapability input Measures something that supports the capability.
- downstream outcomedownstream outcome Measures a result that usually follows from the capability.
- perception proxyperception proxy Records what people or experts say, not what they did.
Confidence
- very thin0.00 to 0.25
The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.
- thin0.25 to 0.45
A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.
- usable0.45 to 0.65
Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.
- good0.65 and above
Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.
A row marked no dataset exists is a gap: the benchmark wants data that nobody publishes. A retired row has a source this project chose not to use. Both reduce confidence. The glossary defines each term, and the limits page lists where these numbers are known to be wrong about the world.
Anticipation
How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?
+2.2 over 10 years, from 85.1 in 2016 to 87.3 on 2 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 92.661index 0-100
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IQ.SPI.OVRL)
- History
Government foresight capacity
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable international dataset. OECD and UN work is descriptive, not scored. Envisioning would have to build this.
Long-horizon research commitments
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of new grants
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the share of R&D spending classed as basic research, which is the make-up of a spending stock, the construct D142 retired business R&D share for. OECD MSTI publishes that share for its members only, and UNESCO UIS no longer serves R&D by type of research (construct audit, 2026-10-02). The behaviour behind it is a funder committing to a horizon: a grant awarded for five years or more is a decision to wait for a result. Untried: no memo has triaged a grant register. National funders publish award lists one by one with their own durations, and commercial grant aggregators fail the inspectability rule. Wireable on a grant-level register with award and end dates, on one definition of a competitive public grant, for half the frame or more.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
R&D expenditureWorld Bank (GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS), 2023
3.6 % of GDP, rank 3 of 118. Gross domestic expenditure on research and development as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: money committed to research is what a country spends, and spending it does not show the country reads the future well (D122).
Researchers in R&DWorld Bank (SP.POP.SCIE.RD.P6), 2023
8,911 per million people, rank 2 of 114. Full-time-equivalent researchers per million people.
A condition, not scored: a standing stock of people who could investigate is what a country has, not a record of what they found (D122). Correlates with income but survives size normalization.
Secure internet serversWorld Bank (IT.NET.SECR.P6), 2024
55,097 per million people, rank 16 of 125. Servers using encryption in internet transactions, per million people.
A condition, not scored: a diffusion stock of digital adoption that money buys, not an act of anticipation (D122). Spans four orders of magnitude, so its rank is read on the published value and its correlations on the logged one.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Framtidskommissionen, the Prime Minister's time-limited future commission
The Swedish government appointed Framtidskommissionen, chaired by Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt, in November 2011 to identify the societal challenges Sweden faces in the longer term, and by its final report in March 2013 it had held eight meetings, organised 40 open meetings, seminars and workshops, published twelve background reports and an anthology, and carried out four sub-inquiries.
12 reports, background reports (underlagsrapporter) published by the commission, 2013-03. 40 events, open meetings, seminars and workshops organised by the commission, 2013-03. Government Offices of Sweden (Regeringskansliet), Ds 2013:19 Svenska framtidsutmaningar, final report of Framtidskommissionen, retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: The head of government chairs a time-limited commission of ministers, social partners and researchers that commissions background reports and runs public meetings across the country to name long-term challenges, then publishes one report and disbands.
Limits: The commission reports on itself, and the figures count activities, not influence on policy; the foreword says identifying challenges, not proposing how to meet them, was its purpose. The figures are in a 316-page PDF, on PDF page 17 (printed page 14) and repeated on PDF page 310 (printed page 291), where the November 2011 appointment and the membership are also stated. It was a time-limited commission of ministers from one coalition and outside members, and it ended with the report: it evidences the existence and mandate of a centre-of-government foresight exercise and, for the construct's third element, its lack of continuity. The next government ran its own time-limited project, Mission: The Future, from February 2015 to April 2016, with a Minister for Strategic Development from 3 October 2014 to 25 May 2016 (government.se, https://www.government.se/government-of-sweden/prime-ministers-office/mission-the-future/, read in a browser because the site returns 403 to scripts), and Sweden's innovation agency Vinnova wrote in 2024 that in strategic institutionalisation of foresight for policy Sweden is 'a weak case' (Strategic Foresight for Innovation, PDF page 32). Status is concluded rather than dismantled because both vehicles were set up as time-limited and no source read today shows either was cut short.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 84.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.55
Excellent statistics, high research output, standing commissions of inquiry, the Fiscal Policy Council and a rebuilt total defence planning system are durable anticipatory institutions. The pandemic commission's findings on run-down stockpiles and slow early action show a gap between anticipation and preparation, so I take a point off and stay below the indicator.
- 84.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.55
Hold. Panelist A's point about run-down stockpiles before the pandemic matches my reading that anticipation did not convert into early action; commissions of inquiry and rebuilt total defence planning still place Sweden near the top. Panelist C discounts article output more than a direct statistical measure and long-standing commission practice warrant.
- 80.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.45
Statistical capacity and long-running inquiry and preparedness institutions are direct capability, and the others cite the pandemic preparedness gaps fairly. Article output is partly bought, so I stay below the indicator score but move up slightly from 78.
Agency
How able are individuals and organizations to turn an intention into action?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 7.084per 1,000 aged 15-64
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.BUS.NDNS.ZS)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 7.5days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.DURS.MA.DY)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 4count
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.REG.PROC.MA.NO)
- History
Adults doing digital tasks
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- ITU / UNESCO UIS (SDG 4.4.1, ICT skills by type)
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked whether adults can perform standard digital tasks, which reads a skill level, the kind of stock D122 moved out of the scores with internet users. It now counts the act: a person who did the task. It is not the internet users condition beside it, which counts access. Candidate: ITU ICT skills by type (SDG 4.4.1) through the UNESCO UIS API, probed 2026-10-02. Sent a message with an attached file reaches 33 of the 53 countries then in the frame, 25 at 2018 or later, with no United States, India or China and most of Africa and Central America missing; two other task items reach 31 and 16. The items are self-reported and the task list has changed between rounds. Wireable on one task observed for half the frame or more at 2018 or later.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 7.6mean 1-10
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A173)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Individuals using the internetWorld Bank (IT.NET.USER.ZS), 2025
95.8 % of population, rank 11 of 125. Share of the population that used the internet in the last three months.
A condition, not scored: access to the basic tool of modern agency is what people have to act with, not a record of them acting (D122). Saturates near 95%, which compresses the top of the range.
Financial account ownershipWorld Bank (FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS), 2024
98.6 % aged 15+, rank 10 of 122. Adults with an account at a bank or mobile money provider.
A condition, not scored: holding an account is the precondition for almost any economic action, not the action (D122). Global Findex, published every three years.
Credit to the private sectorWorld Bank (FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS), 2024
125 % of GDP, rank 11 of 124. Domestic credit provided to the private sector by financial corporations.
A condition, not scored: financial depth is a stock of money available to actors, not what they do with it (D122). High values can also signal a credit bubble, so more is not always better.
Coordination
How effectively can independent actors organize around shared objectives?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Government effectiveness
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_GE.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The WGI aggregate the opinions of experts and firms, and in this set the four WGI series correlate with each other between 0.93 and 0.98 while correlating with log GDP per capita at 0.91. That is one perception of national wealth counted in three dimensions. Cross-agency delivery records are the replacement and they are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Regulatory quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RQ.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. Same measurement as government effectiveness, filed under a different name, correlating with it above 0.93. See D23 and A4.
Logistics performance
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.OVRL.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. The LPI is a survey of international freight forwarders, so it records how a country looks to global logistics firms. A small country with a small port scores low whatever its state can organise, which is artefact A9. Container throughput and border time are observable and stay. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 1.83hours
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TRD.ACRS.BRDR.EXPT.BRDR.COMP.HR.DB1619)
- History
Budget execution fidelity
direct capability measuremissing- Raw value
- no datapercentage points from approved budget
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GF.XPD.BUDG.ZS)
- History
- no data
Note: Observable alignment between an approved public plan and what government spent. The API covers 113 of 125 countries, with a latest year between 2016 and 2024. Values above and below 100 both indicate deviation, so the transform measures absolute distance from the approved budget rather than rewarding overspending. See D55.
University-industry collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Innovation Index
- History
- no data
Note: GII carries it, but the underlying item is a WEF executive opinion survey whose microdata is not inspectable. Excluded on principle 4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.939index 0-1
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2x_cspart)
- History
- one year
Public-private collaboration
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No comparable dataset. PPP investment databases measure infrastructure finance, not collaboration capacity.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Customs clearance time for exportsWorld Bank (IC.CUS.DURS.EX), 2024
3.513 days, lower is better. Average number of days to clear direct exports through customs, as reported by manufacturing firms that export directly, in the World Bank Enterprise Surveys.
Days a manufacturer that exports directly says its goods took to clear customs, from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys. It is the time the border took on firms' own shipments, current where the Doing Business border time this capability scores is frozen at 2019. It is not scored for two reasons. The number of firms behind each country's figure is published only in the survey microdata, and on a proxy from the published tables 37 of the 53 countries in the frame when it was checked clear 30 exporting firms; Mexico, the Philippines, Israel and nine others may not. And the question changed: surveys fielded from 2024 also ask how long release took across all border agencies, and drop an answer where customs alone took longer, so a country surveyed on both sides of the change can move severalfold with nothing at its border changing. India reads 17.3 days in 2022 and 2.5 in 2025, on more than 9,000 firms each time. No country in the frame has two surveys on the new questionnaire yet. Income is not why it is left out: it barely tracks log GDP per capita.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Sweden's six-bank-owned Getswish consortium built Swish into a national mobile payment rail: in 2023 it served just over 8.7 million private users and about 335,000 merchant or business users, processing approximately 977 million payments worth SEK 480 billion.
977,000,000 payments, swish payments, 2023. 8,700,000 users (over), swish private users, 2023. Sveriges Riksbank, The Swedish Financial Market 2024, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Competing banks jointly owned a simple brand and API, used BankID for authentication and connected the service to the national settlement infrastructure. The consortium solved the coordination problem of getting rival banks to make one person-to-person rail interoperable before merchants and public services built on it.
Limits: The Riksbank's figures are service totals, not a causal evaluation of the consortium or a measure of consumer welfare. Swish depends on mobile BankID, smartphones and participating banks, so people without those prerequisites can be excluded; high payment volume also says nothing about fraud, outage resilience or market competition.
Competence Centres Programme (Kompetenscentrumprogrammet) 1995 to 2005
Sweden's NUTEK, and later Vinnova and the Swedish Energy Agency, ran a ten-year programme from 1995 that built 28 competence centres at eight universities, each founded on a three-party contract between a university, a group of firms and the agency; more than 300 companies joined as contracting parties and industry put in 1.7 billion kronor between 1995 and 2005.
300 companies (more than), companies participating as contracting parties, 1995-2005. 1,700,000,000 Swedish kronor, industry contribution to centre research, 1995-2005. Vinnova (Swedish Governmental Agency for Innovation Systems), VINNOVA Analys VA 2011:07, Effektanalys av starka forsknings- och innovationssystem, retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: Each centre was a contract among a university, a group of firms and the state agency, with matched funding from all three, boards with a non-academic majority and chair, and staged three-year funding that depended on international evaluation, which kept firms engaged in the whole research agenda instead of single projects.
Limits: The figures are inside a PDF (PDF page 41, printed page 39). The report is published by Vinnova but written by evaluation consultants (Faugert & Co and Technopolis), and Vinnova notes that its analysis series does not necessarily state the agency's position; it in turn cites Vinnova's own 2006 summary. Roughly 70 percent of the industry contribution was in kind, so the 1.7 billion kronor is mostly valued staff time and equipment, not cash. The company count is of contracting parties over ten years, not firms active at any one time, and about 50 firms were counted in more than one centre. The programme ended as planned and was succeeded by VINN Excellence Centres, so its end is not a reversal; this record says nothing about the current centres.
Panel estimate, round 2, how this layer works
- 85.0 institutionalist@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.50
Very fast border processing, a strong civil society and corporatist social partner bargaining show organisations that coordinate well. Independent agencies and regional autonomy fragmented the pandemic response and cross-agency work against gang crime has been slow, so I hold below the indicator score.
- 87.0 bottom_up@claude-opus-5-5, self-confidence 0.50
Hold. Popular movements, social partner bargaining and civil society strength are distributed coordination that the indicator rightly rewards; C's point about slow cross-agency response to gang crime is real, as is the regional fragmentation in the pandemic, which keeps me well below 97.
- 84.0 wealth_sceptic@claude-sonnet-5-5, self-confidence 0.40
Fast border processing and strong civil society are real coordination, and social partner bargaining supports it. Agency fragmentation in the pandemic and unobserved budget execution and public-private rows keep it well below 97.
Trust
How much cooperation is possible beyond immediate personal networks?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
Rule of law
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_RL.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite correlating with control of corruption above 0.95 and with log GDP per capita at 0.83. Court throughput and case clearance rates are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
Control of corruption
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataz-score -2.5 to 2.5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (GOV_WGI_CC.EST)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. A WGI perception composite. It measures reputation for corruption, which is not the same thing as corruption, and it tracks income closely. Prosecution and audit records are the observable replacement and are a declared gap. See D23 and A4.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 483days
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (ENF.CONT.DURS.DY)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 0% of firms
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.BRIB.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 3.247scale 0-4 (never to always)
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- V-Dem (v2jucomp_osp)
- History
- one year
Intentional homicide rate
downstream outcomeretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataper 100,000 people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (VC.IHR.PSRC.P5)
- History
- no data
Note: Added 2026-08-26 by D23 as the observable replacement for two retired WGI perception composites, and retired 2026-08-27 by D44 when the diagnostic built in D42 measured what it was doing. It raised this dimension's correlation with log GDP per capita by 0.288, from 0.096 to 0.385, the largest single wealth contribution anywhere in the model. It was added to fix wealth contamination and it was the wealth contamination. The dataset is sound and the objection is to what it measures here: homicide is driven heavily by organised crime, a society can be physically safe while trusting very little, and across this country set the variation it carries is mostly income. Behavioural trust measures remain a gap.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 62.8% agreeing
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (A165)
- History
- one year
Trust in public institutions
perception proxyno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% expressing confidence
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD Trust Survey / WVS
- History
- no data
Note: The OECD survey covers members only. Mixing it with WVS items for India and South Africa would break comparability. The Joint EVS/WVS confidence battery (E069) reaches 37 countries from one release, and confidence in the courts (E069_17) is published beside Trust as a check under this id rather than scored: every item of the battery tested (courts, civil service, police, parliament and government) reads higher in the closed and electoral autocracies of the frame than in its democracies, which is deference as much as confidence (A13). The gap stays open for a measure that does not reward a court that cannot rule against the state. See D132.
perception proxyobserved
- Raw value
- 73.9% expressing trust
- Year
- 2022. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Joint EVS/WVS (G007_34_B)
- History
- one year
Court case clearance rate
downstream outcomeno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of incoming cases
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- CEPEJ / OECD / national court statistics
- History
- no data
Note: Whether a court finishes what it starts, counted from case records rather than asked in a survey. D23 named it as the observable replacement for the two retired WGI composites and it has stayed unfilled since. CEPEJ publishes it for Council of Europe members and OECD for its own members, so no single publisher reaches this country set, and a harmonised series needs the project second source adapter. See D57.
Behavioral check, not scored
Each number below is published beside the score and stays out of it. It is not in the frame, the average, the indicator count or the confidence.
Confidence in the courtsJoint EVS/WVS (E069_17), 2022
18.3 % a great deal, higher is better. Share of survey respondents saying they have a great deal of confidence in the justice system and courts, of the four answers a great deal, quite a lot, not very much and none at all, in the Joint EVS/WVS 2017 to 2022 survey round.
Confidence in the courts is the public half of what this capability asks: whether people expect the rules to be enforced when a stranger breaks them. It is not scored because the survey answer reads two things the number cannot tell apart. Where courts are independent, confidence is a judgment of how they perform. Where they answer to the state, it is also deference, and saying otherwise to an interviewer has a cost. In this frame the pattern runs the wrong way. India, the Philippines and Indonesia, all electoral autocracies in the V-Dem 2025 classification, lead on the share saying a great deal, and Vietnam and China, the two closed autocracies surveyed, lead once quite a lot is counted too. The ten electoral autocracies average 21.8 percent saying a great deal and the two closed autocracies 28.1, against 13.6 for liberal and 8.4 for electoral democracies. Scored, it would rank highest the states whose courts are least able to rule against them. Income is not why it is left out: the share correlates about -0.18 with log GDP per capita. The value is the share saying a great deal; the share saying quite a lot is in the source note.
Learning
How effectively does the country acquire, distribute, and update knowledge?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.795index 0-1
- Year
- 2020. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (HD.HCI.OVRL)
- History
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 49.169% of firms
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.FRM.TRNG.ZS)
- History
Adult learning participation
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 1 record- Raw value
- no data% of adults
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Eurostat / OECD PIAAC
- History
- no data
Note: The best available measure of continuous learning capacity, and it exists only for European and OECD members.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 1.902ratio to world average
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- OpenAlex (citation_normalized_percentile.is_in_top_10_percent)
- History
- one year
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Tertiary enrolmentWorld Bank (SE.TER.ENRR), 2024
84 % gross, rank 17 of 124. Gross enrolment ratio in tertiary education.
A condition, not scored: enrolment counts people in formal education and records nothing learned (D122).
Public education expenditureWorld Bank (SE.XPD.TOTL.GD.ZS), 2022
7.3 % of GDP, rank 5 of 125. Government expenditure on education as a share of GDP.
A condition, not scored: public spending on education is a pure input, and learning is what the dimension asks about (D122).
Vocational share of secondaryWorld Bank (SE.SEC.ENRL.VO.ZS), 2018
20.9 % of secondary, rank 33 of 125. Vocational pupils as a share of total secondary enrolment.
A condition, not scored: the share of secondary pupils on a vocational track describes how a school system is built, not what anyone learns in it, and higher is not unambiguously better (D141). It marks a route into skilled work that does not run through university. Learning reads research citation impact, firm training and the human capital index instead.
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Kunskapslyftet adult education initiative
Sweden's government funded municipalities to expand upper secondary adult education from autumn 1997 until 2002, and in spring 1999 municipal adult education produced about 157,000 places, of which about 120,000 full-year places were counted within Kunskapslyftet.
120,000 full-year places, full-year places in municipal upper secondary adult education counted within kunskapslyftet, spring 1999. Kunskapslyftskommittén, Kunskapsbygget 2000 del 1 (SOU 2000:28), published by Sveriges riksdag, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: The government paid municipalities earmarked grants for adult education places and paid unemployed adults a special education grant at the level of unemployment benefit, so a year of study cost the learner nothing compared with staying on benefits.
Limits: The figure counts full-year places, a volume measure, not people, and not a share of adults: one place can be several part-time students, so it does not translate into the participation rate the gap asks for. It is one semester's figure reported by the committee that ran and evaluated the initiative, citing a Skolverket follow-up, so the programme is partly reporting on itself. The committee's own figure in another passage of the same report is just under 112,000 full-year places, so the count depends on what is included. The same report's Skolverket table gives 228,000 participants (Deltagare) in spring 1999 in municipal upper secondary adult education, which is a count of people but still not a share of adults. The initiative was time-limited to 2002 by design. Effects on earnings and employment are contested in the evaluation literature and are not shown by this number.
Experimentation
How easily can new approaches be attempted, tested, abandoned, and improved?
-7.2 over 10 years, from 52.6 in 2016 to 45.4 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 1771per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.PAT.RESD)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 15190per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.TMK.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 390per million people
- Year
- 2021. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IP.IDS.RSCT)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 296757per million people
- Year
- 2026. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- GitHub Innovation Graph (data/repositories.csv)
- History
- no data
Venture deals
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD / national VC associations
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The id keeps its first name so evidence records, links and published files still resolve. The row asked for venture capital deployed as a share of GDP, a level of financial depth of the kind private credit is (D122). A count of first rounds counts attempts started with outside risk money, which is what this capability asks about, and a large round counts once. Candidates, none wireable: the OECD SME and Entrepreneurship Financing scoreboard carried venture capital for 6 of the 16 countries the frame held on 2026-08-26, as amounts in national currency, latest year 2022, with Brazil, India, South Africa and Singapore absent (D21); national venture capital associations publish counts on their own definitions; commercial deal databases cover the world and are not inspectable (D10). Wireable on an inspectable deal count with one definition of a first round for half the frame or more. Read A1 before treating this dimension as measured.
Early-stage entrepreneurial activity
direct capability measuremissing- Raw value
- no data% aged 18-64
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, TEA rate)
- History
- no data
Note: From the GEM Adult Population Survey, entered by hand because GEM has no open API. TEA counts every new business, so necessity self-employment scores the same as a funded startup, which is why Chile and Argentina sit above the United States here. Read it as how many people are trying, not as how much value the attempts create. GEM does not run every economy every year: Singapore last took part in 2014 and the recency term marks that value down hard.
Tolerance of entrepreneurial failure
perception proxymissing- Raw value
- no data% not deterred
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (APS key indicators, fear of failure rate)
- History
- no data
Note: Stored as 100 minus the published GEM fear of failure rate, so the direction matches the rest of the registry. GEM measures that rate among adults who already see good opportunities, not among all adults, so the denominator differs from the label. Attitudinal: bankruptcy law and time to discharge would be the observable substitute and are still worth wiring beside it.
Firms through regulatory sandboxes
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no datafirms per million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national regulators
- History
- no data
Note: Redefined 2026-10-02 (D152). The row asked for the number and breadth of live sandboxes, which is a policy stock: a regime can exist with nobody in it. It now counts what passes through: firms a regulator let test under relaxed rules, and firms that came out, authorised, withdrawn or failed. Regulators publish cohort lists and exit reports one by one. The evidence corpus holds 22 records against this row, most of them counts of firms admitted or exited, each on the definition and window of its own regulator, and no register assembles them on one definition (O1 triage sweep, 2026-10-01). A realistic candidate for Envisioning to build from those lists. Wireable on a register that counts admissions and completions on one definition for half the frame or more.
University spinouts
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no dataper million people
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- national TTO associations
- History
- no data
Note: Reported nationally with incompatible definitions of what counts as a spinout.
Business share of R&D
capability inputretired, see notes- Raw value
- no data% of R&D
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD MSTI / RICYT
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-10-02. The only working source, OECD MSTI joined with RICYT for Latin America, covers 34 of the 53 countries then in the frame, but the row reads the make-up of a spending stock: who performs the R&D a country pays for. R&D spending itself is a condition since D122, and the share is high both where business research is large (Israel) and where total research is tiny and one firm dominates it (Thailand). State enterprises count as business, so China and Vietnam read their ownership model. UIS stopped publishing the series in 2023. Firms trying new things are read through patents, trademarks, designs and entrepreneurship instead. See D142.
Adaptability
How effectively can the system respond when circumstances change?
No trend is shown because too few indicators have values at both ends. The rows below still show the available history.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 8.694% of labour force
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 20.8% of unemployed
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- ILOSTAT (DF_UNE_TUNE_SEX_AGE_DUR_NB)
- History
- one year
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 0.085index 0-1, lower = more diversified
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- UNCTAD (US.ConcentDiversIndices)
- History
- one year
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 3.09% of products not exported competitively at the start
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- Harvard Growth Lab (hs92_country_product_year_4.csv (doi:10.7910/DVN/T4CHWJ))
- History
- one year
Disaster preparedness and recovery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 2 records- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- INFORM / UNDRR
- History
- no data
Note: No source observes a country preparing for or recovering from a real shock. INFORM publishes its lack of coping capacity apart from hazard and exposure, but that dimension averages government self-assessments and governance perception indices with stocks such as roads, phones and physicians, which is the perception layer D23 retired plus conditions money buys (D122). Sendai and WHO reporting are governments grading themselves. A warning-reach survey item is a check candidate. See the disaster preparedness memo.
Institutional responsiveness
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 2 records- Raw value
- no dataindex 0-100
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: No dataset exists. Measurable in principle from legislative and regulatory timestamps, which no one has assembled comparably.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Labour force participationWorld Bank (SL.TLF.ACTI.ZS), 2025
83.9 % aged 15+, rank 5 of 125. Share of the working-age population in the labour force.
A condition, not scored: how much of the population is in the labor force at all is what a country has to reallocate, a level set by norms, schooling and age, not a record of it reallocating (D141). Participation norms confound it, especially for India. Adaptability reads reallocation through long-term unemployment and export diversification instead.
Fixed broadband subscriptionsWorld Bank (IT.NET.BBND.P2), 2024
40.6 per 100 people, rank 15 of 125. Fixed broadband subscriptions per 100 people.
A condition, not scored: installed infrastructure is what a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D122). Penalizes mobile-first countries such as India and South Africa.
Electricity transmission lossesWorld Bank (EG.ELC.LOSS.ZS), 2024
5.5 % of output, rank 25 of 117. Power lost in transmission and distribution, including unbilled use.
A condition, not scored: the state of the grid, and whether its operator can bill what it delivers, is infrastructure a country has to change with, not a record of it changing (D141). Read it beside broadband, the other installed network beside Adaptability.
Informal employmentILOSTAT (DF_SDG_0831_SEX_ECO_RT), 2025
3.2 % of employment, rank 8 of 102. Informal employment as a share of total employment, SDG indicator 8.3.1.
A condition, not scored: how much work carries no contract, registration or social protection describes the labor market a country reallocates through, not it reallocating (D150). Read it beside the unemployment rate: where most work is informal, a person who loses a job takes any work within weeks, so a low rate is not a fluid market. Its direction for Adaptability cannot be defended, since informal work is both the slack that absorbs a shock and the precarity that keeps a worker from moving up, so the rank orders values and is not a verdict. Comparability is weak: the European values come from an income survey (EU-SILC) with a proxy definition, and the rest from labor force or household surveys processed by the ILO. ILOSTAT has no value for the United States, Canada, Australia, Japan, Singapore, Israel, Malaysia, China, the Philippines or Cuba, and some values are old (Haiti and Nicaragua 2012).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
BankID federated electronic identity
Sweden's bank-issued BankID became a shared identity layer for public and private services: in 2024 it handled 7.6 billion identification or signature transactions for 8.6 million users across 7,500 connected services, with 99.99% availability.
7,600,000,000 transactions, bankid identification and signature transactions, 2024. 8,600,000 users (over), bankid users, 2024. Finansiell ID-Teknik BID AB (BankID), 2024 statistics, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Major banks formed a common issuer and technical standard, then public authorities and firms adopted the same authentication and signing flow instead of each building a separate credential. That let one already-identified customer base become national digital infrastructure without a single government agency issuing every credential.
Limits: BankID is a private bank consortium rather than a state identity card, and access requires a Swedish personal identity number, an issuing bank and the ability to use the app without assistance. Transaction volume and availability show a functioning identity rail, not equal access, fraud resistance, or the quality of the public services reached through it.
1177 national health portal and helpline
Sweden's regions and municipalities run the 1177 national health hub through Inera, combining a common website, logged-in care services and the nationwide nurse helpline; 1177.se recorded just over 260 million visits in 2021.
260,000,000 visits (over), 1177.se visits, 2021. Swedish eHealth Agency, Follow-Up Vision for eHealth 2025 (report on 2021), retrieved 2026-10-02.
How it worked: Regional health systems kept operational responsibility but agreed on one national entry point, shared content standards and a common identity-backed service layer. The arrangement turns a fragmented provider landscape into a recognisable front door without removing regional control over care.
Limits: The 2021 web total includes an exceptional pandemic information load. The visit figure is on page 33 of the report, and the report does not count helpline calls. Regions still run their own advice operations and decide which logged-in services and records are visible, so national branding does not mean identical service quality or outcomes everywhere.
VMA multi-channel public warning system
Sweden's Viktigt meddelande till allmänheten (VMA) system combines radio, television, mobile messages, apps and outdoor sirens; SOS Alarm's 2025 report records 37 VMA alerts issued in 2024, alongside the four scheduled annual siren tests.
37 alerts, vma alerts issued, 2024. 4 tests per year, scheduled outdoor-warning tests, 2024. SOS Alarm, 112 Report 2025, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Authorised authorities can request one centrally coordinated warning, while SOS Alarm and broadcasters distribute it through several channels and the siren network is exercised on a fixed public schedule. Redundancy makes the warning less dependent on any one medium and gives residents a familiar routine for checking what a signal means.
Limits: Alert count measures the activation of a warning chain, not the share of people who received, understood or acted on a message. Outdoor sirens do not cover every location, mobile delivery depends on network and handset conditions, and scheduled tests are evidence of maintenance rather than proof of performance in a major disaster.
State medical emergency stockpiles, and their dismantling
Sweden's civil defence agency ÖCB began procuring long-term stocks of medical consumables for wartime care in 1989, and the national build-up by ÖCB and Socialstyrelsen was completed in 1995 to 1996; the stocks were run down from the late 1990s, ÖCB's stockpiles ended entirely in 2001, and by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 Socialstyrelsen held no personal protective equipment in its emergency stockpile.
0 items, personal protective equipment held in socialstyrelsen's national emergency stockpile before the pandemic, 2020. 150,000 patients (peak; reduced to 5,000), patients covered by socialstyrelsen's emergency stockpile, peak versus after the 1996/1997 defence decision, 1996/1997. Coronakommissionen, Sverige under pandemin (SOU 2021:89), published by Sveriges riksdag, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: The government had ÖCB and later Socialstyrelsen build national stocks of medical consumables and equipment for wartime casualties, then, after the 1996 total defence decision, the agencies sold off and ran down the stocks and moved supply onto the regions' just-in-time procurement.
Limits: SOU 2021:19 sizes the stockpile at its peak in patients covered, not in volume or value: stocks for 150,000 patients and at most about 200 consumable items in 1996/1997, reduced to 5,000 patients with a trauma-care focus after the 1996/1997 defence decision. The build-up was sized for one to two months of wartime surgical consumption. The 2020 PPE zero measures a category the 1990s wartime stock is not shown to have held. The zero is Socialstyrelsen's own answer to the commission, and the same report says PPE bought during the 2014 Ebola outbreak had been held and lent to the regions, so 'no PPE' describes what was on hand in early 2020, not a stock that never existed. The dismantling was a deliberate decision based on a reassessed wartime threat, with the regions expected to hold their own stocks; the record documents a capability given up by choice, not one that collapsed. The 1950s figure of about 124,000 emergency hospital beds in SOU 2021:19 covers a different, older programme and is not used here. Both inquiries are long HTML transcriptions of PDFs with hyphenation breaks, and Sweden has since begun rebuilding health-sector stockpiling, which this record does not evaluate.
Building
How capable is the country of turning plans and knowledge into functioning systems?
-2.6 over 10 years, from 34.4 in 2016 to 31.8 on 3 indicators seen in both years.
Trends use fewer indicators than the current score and use today's frame. A longer span reaches further back.
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 12.453% of GDP
- Year
- 2025. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (NV.IND.MANF.ZS)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 17.652% of manufactured exports
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (TX.VAL.TECH.MF.ZS)
- History
Logistics infrastructure quality
perception proxyretired, see notes- Raw value
- no dataindex 1-5
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- World Bank (LP.LPI.INFR.XQ)
- History
- no data
Note: Retired 2026-08-26. An LPI sub-index, so the same freight-forwarder survey as logistics performance and the same problem. Electricity connection speed stays as the observable infrastructure measure in this dimension. See D23.
direct capability measureobserved
- Raw value
- 85.217score 0-100
- Year
- 2019. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (IC.ELC.TIME.DFRN)
- History
downstream outcomeobserved
- Raw value
- 1.166index
- Year
- 2024. The rail runs from 1960 to 2026.
- Normalized
- Source
- World Bank (EF.EFM.UNIV.XD)
- History
Large project delivery
direct capability measureno dataset exists, 3 records- Raw value
- no data% overrun
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- none
- History
- no data
Note: The single best measure of execution capability and there is no comparable international dataset. Assembling one is a defensible Envisioning project. Building mixes industrial output with state delivery capacity, and this indicator carries the delivery side: the other six indicators cannot see a national programme that was delivered. Documented deliveries are recorded in data/evidence and never scored, see D20.
Firm scale-up rate
direct capability measureno dataset exists- Raw value
- no data% of firms
- Year
- no data
- Normalized
- no data
- Source
- OECD DynEmp
- History
- no data
Note: OECD business dynamics work covers members irregularly. Nothing comparable for India, Brazil or South Africa.
Conditions, not scored
What the country has to work with on this capability. The values are shown as the source published them and are not part of the score, the confidence or the trend. The rank counts the countries with a value, best first.
Output per workerWorld Bank (SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD), 2025
128,980 constant 2021 PPP $, rank 11 of 123. GDP per person employed, constant purchasing power parity.
A condition, not scored: output per worker is income per worker, the wealth the benchmark tests capability against, so it is published beside Building as context (D122).
Evidence for missing indicators
Each record describes a case the indicators above cannot see. It does not affect the score or confidence because one case is not comparable across countries. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.
Nya Karolinska Solna public–private hospital project
Stockholm delivered Nya Karolinska Solna through a 30-year public–private partnership: the official inquiry reports SEK 22.8 billion for construction and equipment, a projected SEK 57 billion total through 2040 including operation and maintenance, and an external comparison that found construction 53% more expensive per square metre than Scandinavian hospitals.
22,800,000,000 Swedish kronor, nya karolinska construction and equipment investment, 2020. 53 % above Scandinavian comparison hospitals, estimated construction cost premium per square metre, 2020. Swedish Government Official Inquiry SOU 2020:15, published by Sveriges riksdag, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Stockholm bundled design, construction, financing, operations and maintenance into a long PPP contract, transferring construction risk and locking in a lifecycle payment model. The inquiry shows the trade-off: a complex hospital was delivered and remains in use, but the long contract and specification changes made the full cost harder to compare and challenge.
Limits: The inquiry distinguishes the 22.8 billion construction-and-equipment investment from the 57 billion projection through 2040, which includes operations, maintenance, financing and additions; those figures are not a like-for-like cash budget. The 53% comparison is an external estimate with explanations including higher standards, site conditions, schedule and PPP risk transfer, so it does not isolate one causal failure or measure clinical performance.
Barsebäck nuclear plant closure and decommissioning
Sweden permanently shut Barsebäck 1 in 1999 and Barsebäck 2 in 2005; the national nuclear-safety report lists each reactor at 615 MWe and records the site as undergoing decommissioning, a 1,230-MWe asset retirement completed by political decision rather than construction failure.
1,230 megawatts electrical (2 × 615 MWe), net electrical capacity permanently retired at barsebäck, 2005. 2 reactors, barsebäck reactors permanently shut, 2005. Swedish Radiation Safety Authority, Sweden's Tenth National Report under the Convention on Nuclear Safety, retrieved 2026-08-31.
How it worked: Sweden converted a political decision into a regulated, staged retirement: operators removed fuel, kept the site under care and maintenance, and moved toward dismantling under the nuclear-safety authority's oversight. The capability is visible in the exit path and accountability after closure, not only in the original build.
Limits: Retiring a nuclear asset is evidence about a state's ability to close and decommission a major system, not about whether the original plant was safe, economical or replaceable without wider grid effects. Capacity is nameplate output rather than annual generation, and the record does not quantify replacement power, compensation or the final decommissioning cost.
Sweden built the Botniabanan railway between Nyland on the Ångermanälven and Umeå through the state and municipally owned company Botniabanan AB, starting construction in 1999 and opening it in August 2010, four years after the original 2006 schedule, at a final cost of almost SEK 16 billion in 2010 prices, which the national audit office calculated as 73 percent above the original estimate.
73 % overrun, final construction cost increase over the original cost estimate, 2010 prices, 2010. 140 % above the pre-decision estimate, total cost of delivering the planned botniabanan traffic, including follow-on investments on connecting lines, above the estimate before the decision, 2011. Riksrevisionen (Swedish National Audit Office), audit RiR 2011:22 as reproduced in Government communication 2011/12:20, published by Sveriges riksdag, retrieved 2026-10-01.
How it worked: Parliament chose to build the line through a dedicated company, Botniabanan AB, owned by the state and the municipalities along the route and loan-financed so it could build quickly, while Banverket kept the physical planning; the state then rents the line back from the company.
Limits: The 73 percent is Riksrevisionen's own recalculation in constant 2010 prices; the government's communication in the same document gives SEK 15 billion in current prices, about 3 billion more than at the 1997 decision, so the size of the overrun depends on the price basis chosen. The 140 percent counts follow-on investments on Ådalsbanan and other connecting lines that the audit office judged necessary, a boundary Trafikverket disputed. The four-year delay is computed from two sentences, not published as a figure, and much of it came from environmental permitting under the 1999 Environmental Code rather than construction. The start year rests on a 1999/2000 parliamentary motion saying construction had just begun, because the audit itself dates only the 1997 decision. One railway line is a single project, so this is not a portfolio-level overrun rate, and the audit predates a decade of operation, so whether ridership and freight benefits arrived is not shown.