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NCBNational Capability Benchmark
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Challenge the benchmark

Choose a score and give the benchmark a specific reason to reconsider it.

When you submit, the form attaches the current score and confidence for the country and capability you chose.

Submissions are public and start as awaiting review. A maintainer can add a response and signature after review.

Capability agenda

China

Generated 2026-10-03

The frame includes 125 countries. Each dimension is scored from 0 to 100, with no overall ranking, and each score shows its confidence beside it. Read the known limits of the data before you quote a score.

Open the profile: indicators, values, years and sources

Where China stands

DimensionScoreConfidenceTrend
Anticipation30.10.46+10.7 over 10 years using 2 indicators
Agency76.30.56no trend
Coordination67.90.41no trend
Trust55.30.50no trend
Learning76.00.55no trend
Experimentation100.00.24+19.5 over 10 years using 3 indicators
Adaptability79.60.46no trend
Building77.40.57-5.1 over 10 years using 3 indicators
Shared Purpose29.90.41+0.8 over 10 years using 2 indicators

Score

  • weakNear the floor of the frame. Check the confidence before reading anything into it.0 to 25
  • below middleIn the lower half of the frame.25 to 50
  • above middleIn the upper half of the frame.50 to 75
  • strongNear the top of the frame on this dimension.75 and above

Confidence

  • very thin0.00 to 0.25

    The score rests on one or two indicators. Do not quote it on its own.

  • thin0.25 to 0.45

    A minority of indicators, or evidence old enough to have moved. Read with care.

  • usable0.45 to 0.65

    Enough evidence to compare countries, with known holes.

  • good0.65 and above

    Most indicators observed, recent, from official or intergovernmental sources.

Capability over time

Select a dimension to see how Chinaโ€™s comparable evidence has moved over time. The vertical scale is the current comparison frame, from 0 to 100.

Dimension

Period

Capability position in the current frame0 to 100
02550751001996200120062011201620212026

Experimentation 1996 โ†’ 2026: 6.6 to 100.0 (+93.4) over 30 years using 2 indicators

Historical values use todayโ€™s frame from 0 to 100 and a matched basket of indicators. They show movement in the available evidence, not an overall development score. Dated agenda items appear on a separate timeline and do not change the score. A missing line means the evidence does not support a comparable trend for that dimension.

What to raise

These are the lowest scores with usable evidence. Thin evidence appears below.

Anticipation

30.10.46

How capable is the country of identifying and preparing for emerging change?

Uses 2 observed indicators. +10.7 over 10 years using 2 indicators.

Highest usable scores: Denmark 98.1, Norway 97.2, Switzerland 93.4.

Related deliveries in other countries: Embrapa, a fifty-year bet on tropical agriculture (Brazil); The Delta Programme and its fund (Netherlands); Lei de Informรกtica, a sectoral industrial policy (Brazil); CGEE, the strategic studies center (Brazil); Centre for Strategic Futures, foresight inside government (Singapore); Legally binding carbon budgets (United Kingdom); Fukushima decommissioning roadmap, a 30โ€“40-year risk-reduction horizon (Japan); PLANAPP and REPLAN, a centre-of-government foresight network (Portugal); Labour Market Intelligence Programme and forward skills planning (South Africa); Government Report on the Future and the parliamentary Committee for the Future (Finland); Foresight Centre at the Riigikogu (Arenguseire Keskus) (Estonia); Office of Technology Assessment, defunded and closed in 1995 (United States); Rzฤ…dowe Centrum Studiรณw Strategicznych, liquidated in 2006 (Poland); Office of Technology Assessment at the German Bundestag (TAB) (Germany); National Assembly Futures Institute (South Korea); Federal Chancellery situation and environment analysis (Perspektivstab) (Switzerland); Senate foresight delegation (Dรฉlรฉgation sรฉnatoriale ร  la prospective) (France); Senate Commission on Future Challenges, Science, Technology and Innovation (Chile); Policy Horizons Canada, the federal foresight unit, and its 2024 disruption scan (Canada); Framtidskommissionen, the Prime Minister's time-limited future commission (Sweden); National Planning Commission foresight work for Malawi 2063 (Malawi); Bureau National de la Prospective et de la Veille Stratรฉgique and the national prospective studies (Cรดte d'Ivoire); Teknologiraadet, the Norwegian Board of Technology (Norway); Teknologiraadet, the Danish Board of Technology, abolished in 2012 (Denmark); Bureau federal du Plan (Belgium); Special Secretariat of Foresight (now of Long-term Planning) (Greece); STRATA foresight for the Lietuva 2050 state progress strategy (Lithuania); Institut Royal des Etudes Stratรฉgiques (IRES) (Morocco); Long-term Insights Briefings under the Public Service Act 2020 (New Zealand).

Missing indicators: Government foresight capacity, Long-horizon research commitments.

What to measure first

The evidence is too thin to manage these dimensions confidently.

What to keep watching

These dimensions score at least 50 with usable evidence.

DimensionScoreConfidence
Adaptability79.60.46
Building77.40.57
Agency76.30.56
Learning76.00.55
Trust55.30.50

Missing data

18 requested indicators have no comparable dataset, and each one lowers confidence. A gap can become an indicator when a comparable series covers at least two countries.

DimensionMissing indicatorWhat it asks
AnticipationGovernment foresight capacityExistence, mandate and continuity of a national strategic foresight function.
AnticipationLong-horizon research commitmentsNew competitively awarded public research grants that run for five years or longer, as a share of all new competitive public research grants awarded in the year.
AgencyAdults doing digital tasksShare of adults who carried out a named digital task in the last three months, such as sending a message with an attached file, moving a file between devices or using a spreadsheet formula, counted one task at a time and never as a skill level.
CoordinationUniversity-industry collaborationIntensity of research collaboration between universities and firms.
CoordinationPublic-private collaborationFrequency and scale of joint public-private delivery of national objectives.
TrustTrust in public institutionsConfidence in national government, courts and civil service.
TrustCourt case clearance rateCivil and commercial cases resolved in a year as a share of cases filed in the same year.
LearningAdult learning participationShare of adults in formal or non-formal education and training in the last 12 months.
ExperimentationVenture dealsFirst venture capital rounds closed by companies based in the country in the year, per million people, counted by deal and never by amount.
ExperimentationFirms through regulatory sandboxesFirms admitted to, and firms completing, a regulatory sandbox or controlled trial regime in the year, per million people, summed across every regulator in the country.
ExperimentationUniversity spinoutsCompanies formed to commercialise university research, per million people.
AdaptabilityDisaster preparedness and recoveryDemonstrated capacity to prepare for and recover from major shocks.
AdaptabilityInstitutional responsivenessSpeed at which rules and public programmes are changed in response to new conditions.
BuildingLarge project deliveryCost and schedule performance of major public infrastructure projects.
BuildingFirm scale-up rateShare of young firms reaching significant employment or turnover thresholds.
Shared PurposeSense of national belongingReported identification with and attachment to the national community, as distinct from pride in the nation.
Shared PurposeVolunteeringShare of adults who volunteered time to an organisation in the last month.
Shared PurposePolitical polarisationDegree to which political differences run along a single hostile divide.

What the indicators miss about China

Documented deliveries linked to missing indicators. They do not affect scores or confidence.

  • National basic-research funding allocation (Anticipation)

    China's National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Science and Technology and Ministry of Finance reported 225.91 billion yuan in basic-research expenditure in 2023, equal to 6.77% of national R&D spending.

  • Dynamic zero-COVID containment, and its dismantling (Adaptability)

    China's State Council joint prevention and control mechanism ran a national COVID-19 containment regime from January 2020, under which the mainland had reported 4,634 COVID-19 deaths when vaccination began on 15 December 2020; it dismantled the regime by circular on 7 December 2022, and the National Health Commission then reported 59,938 COVID-related deaths in medical institutions between 8 December 2022 and 12 January 2023.

  • National high-speed rail network (Building)

    China's railway authorities built a high-speed rail network that the National Railway Administration put at about 47,000 km in operation in December 2024, from a programme that began in 2003; a World Bank review of the 27 lines in operation at the end of 2013 found a weighted average approved unit cost of RMB 129m per km for 350 km/h lines, which it put at no more than two-thirds of costs elsewhere.

  • National PPP programme and project library, and its dismantling (Coordination)

    China's Ministry of Finance ran a national government and social capital cooperation (PPP) programme under the 2015 State Council guidance, whose management library held 10,332 projects with 16.6 trillion yuan of investment by the end of October 2022; in November 2023 the State Council ended the 2015 regime for every project not yet procured and replaced it with a concession-only, user-fee mechanism that bars availability payments.

  • Vocational skills upgrading action, 2019-2021 (Learning)

    Under a State Council plan funded with 100 billion yuan from the unemployment insurance fund surplus, China's human resources ministry organised 32.184 million person-times of subsidised vocational skills training in 2021 alone, the final year of a three-year action that targeted more than 50 million.

  • Phased exemption of enterprise social insurance contributions, 2020 (Adaptability)

    China's human resources ministry, finance ministry and tax administration let provinces exempt or halve employer pension, unemployment and work-injury contributions from February 2020 under a notice dated 20 February, and exemptions, reductions, deferrals and rate cuts together reduced contributions by 1.54 trillion yuan between February and the end of 2020.

Contribute

Fill a gap, file evidence or challenge an indicator at github.com/envisioning/national-capability-benchmark. The docs explain the method and decisions.